Volodymyr Zelenskyj, Ukraine | – Increases the risk of a Russian breakthrough

In an interview with American CBS News on Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian forces have managed to hold back Russian advances throughout the winter.

– We have stabilized the situation. It is better now than two or three months ago, when we had a large deficit of artillery ammunition and various weapons, Zelenskyy said, adding:

– We never saw a huge counter-offensive from Russia. They have not succeeded, said the president.

But Zelensky’s positive assessment of how things have gone on the battlefield this winter notwithstanding: Russia has gradually eaten more and more into Ukrainian territory throughout the winter.

Russia’s progress does not reflect the situation

The research group and think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes on Wednesday that Ukraine has had a hard time holding back Russian forces throughout the winter. ISW estimates that since launching its offensive last October, Russia has captured 505 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory.

505 square kilometers is five times as large as Asker municipality, or slightly smaller than Lødingen municipality in Nordland.

Over one-fifth of the area Russia has conquered since October was won by the Russians after the New Year. Among the areas is the bombed-out town of Avdijivka, over which there have been fierce battles.

– The marginal increase in the speed of Russian advance, however, does not reflect the threat to Russian operational success, which could come if American security assistance is constantly delayed, writes ISW.

The group and the think tank believe that the Ukrainians’ material limitations limit how Ukrainian forces can carry out effective defensive operations.

Also read: – A predicament for Putin

– Will force Ukraine to prioritize

The lack of materiel also means that the Russians gain greater tactical flexibility in their offensive operations, which can give them gains in the future as well.

– The possibilities for exploiting Ukrainian vulnerabilities will increase if Ukraine’s lack of military material persists, at the same time as Ukraine struggles to get enough manpower, writes the think tank.

ISW writes that if Ukraine does not have enough military equipment, it will force the country to prioritize where to use its limited resources, preferably where it is most critical.

– It increases the risk of a Russian breakthrough in other de-prioritized sectors, and makes the front line generally more fragile than it appears to be, despite the current low speed Russia has in its advances, they write.

Read also: Russia is mobilizing 100,000 soldiers, Ukraine claims

Not prepared for a new major offensive

And the Russians don’t seem to have any plans to take a summer vacation. That worries Zelensky. He told CBS News that Ukrainian forces are not prepared to defend themselves against a new major Russian offensive effort, which is expected to come in May or June this year.

– It is not enough just to stabilize the situation and prepare, because our adversary can at times be very happy that we have stabilized the situation, Zelenskyj said and added:

– We need help now.