The war in Ukraine: – – Putin is in a hurry

Russia has advanced in Ukraine in recent months and taken control of several smaller towns. The Ukrainian soldiers have lacked ammunition to defend themselves, and several experts have pointed out that this could have fatal consequences for the war-ravaged country.

After months of wrangling and deadlock, the US House of Representatives on Saturday night passed $61 billion in military aid to Ukraine. Late on Tuesday evening, the same package was voted through in the Senate.

Thus, Ukraine can prepare to strike back against the Russian forces. One of the questions now is how long it will take before Ukraine receives supplies of weapons and ammunition.

– It takes time to send the equipment from the USA, but there are many indications that the Americans have prepared for the approval to come. Thus, they were ready to send this as soon as Biden had put an end to it, then the first transport planes could take off, says head teacher at the section for land power at the War School, Palle Ydstebø.

Putin’s worst nightmare

In recent months, Ukraine has had to ration ammunition, and the country has in several places lacked air defenses to stop the Russian missiles that have rained down on large parts of the country.

Ukrainian joy

Now Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hopes that the aid package will be in place quickly, and will benefit the Ukrainian people.

– I am grateful for the support from President Joe Biden and look forward to the decision being formally approved and to the next military aid package in line with the steadfastness I have seen in our negotiations, Zelenskyj says.

The United States has been the main military backer of Ukraine in the war against the Russian invasion, and Zelenskyy said that long-range capabilities, artillery and air defense are “crucial for restoring peace faster.”

– The most critical thing for Ukraine is to replenish artillery ammunition, grenades and anti-aircraft ammunition. Some of this is stored in Europe, but some of the equipment has to be sent by plane from the USA, says Palle Ydstebø.

The infrastructure between the US and Ukraine is well established after more than two years of war, so much of the new supplies can go quite quickly

– At best, the Ukrainians can have this equipment available at the front in one to two weeks, says Ydstebø.

This means that Russia’s window of opportunity to attack an almost weapon- and ammunition-free Ukraine has become considerably shorter. In addition to the American aid package, the Czech Republic has taken the initiative to acquire 800,000 artillery shells before the start of June.

– Putin and his soldiers are in a hurry if they are to succeed, but I am not sure if they have the capacity to carry it out. The window of opportunity has been there for a while, but so far they have not been able to mount an offensive of any greater importance, says Ydstebø.

Several independent sources have reported that the regime in Moscow has called for a major victory in Ukraine.

– Syrskyi has stated that the Russian forces have been told by the Kremlin to take over the town of Chasiv Yar before 9 May. The city is located on a hill, which makes it more difficult to take over control, says chief researcher Tor Bukkvoll at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI) to Dagbladet.

9 May is “Victory Day” in Russia, the day on which the Russians have celebrated the victory over Hitler’s Germany in all the years after World War II with pompous military parades in the streets of Moscow.

TV tower collapsed after attack

– You shouldn’t rule anything out, but it doesn’t go particularly quickly. I don’t think Vladimir Putin will get what he wants on 9 May, says Bukkvoll.

Putin is inaugurated as president on May 7

Palle Ydstebø doesn’t think so either, but he also thinks there could be a big attack.

– Putin will be inaugurated as president on May 7 and the “victory day” is May 9, so it may well be that they try a big attack in advance. If the Russians are massing around Chavi Yar, and the Ukrainians are aware of this, they can gather their forces and defend the city. But here there are probably a number of calculations of how much fighting power they have, and how much they are interested in sacrificing, says Palle Ydstebø to Dagbladet.

Russia has previously taken over control in the cities of Bakhmut and Avdijivka, while Ukraine has to retreat further and further due to a lack of ammunition.

– So far it has been slow, and with large costs at the front, says Bukkvoll.

Before the start of summer 2023, the situation was completely different. By then, Ukraine had been supplied with ammunition and new weapons, and everyone was expecting a major offensive against Russia.

Now everything is turned upside down.

– It is a bit fluid when this happened due to Ukraine’s lack of ammunition, but with the aid package from the USA, it may mean that the Russians will have to change their plans again, says Bukkvoll.

Has rationed the ammunition

Another factor that can make it difficult for the Russian soldiers is that Ukraine can already step up its resistance at the front line today. Due to a shortage of ammunition, Ukraine has only been able to fire one shell against every 6 or 7 Russian shells.

– This means that Ukraine has rationed its ammunition, ammunition that they can now use more of all the time they know new supplies will arrive from the US and the Czech initiative respectively. Thus, they may be able to offer greater resistance already now, says Ydstebø.

– Can we expect a major Russian attack in the near future?

– From a professional point of view, it would be perfectly logical for them to try a violent attack before Ukraine is supplied with more ammunition. Politically, it would be a victory for Putin to take over the town of Tjavi Jar, but then it must happen within a couple of weeks before these supplies start arriving at the front, says Ydstebø.

There are three things that are important for Ukraine right now. They need more ammunition, they need more soldiers and they need to build better defenses along the front line.

– They got started late, but sources who have recently been at the front line say that this work is now well under way, says Tor Bukkvoll.

– Where can Russand come up with a bigger attack?

– I think it will come in Donbas, that is, the rest of Donetsk county. From Tjasiv Jar and Bakhmut and further west. There are some larger cities left such as Slovjansk and Kramatorsk which make the most sense militarily to conquer. Then the Kremlin can use this politically to say that Russia has liberated Donbas, he says.

– Can they attack more cities?

– There has been speculation as to whether they can take Kharkiv, but it is a very large city and I think it will be difficult to take with the forces they have at their disposal, he says.

– What more Kherson?

– I also think it will be difficult. I cannot understand that they will try to take Kherson once more, it is difficult to resupply the forces when they have to cross the Dnipro, he says.

He believes it is absolutely crucial that Ukraine gets access to ammunition through the Czech initiative and the aid package from the USA.

– If Ukraine gets weapons, it will be very expensive for the Russians to advance. At the same time, Russia has historically tended to move forward despite enormous human losses, says Tor Bukkvoll to Dagbladet.

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