Excess mortality of 7 percent in 2022

There have been 7 per cent more deaths than expected until mid-November this year. The main reason is covid-19.

In 2022, even in week 46, there was an excess mortality of 7 percent compared to the years before the pandemic. This amounts to approximately 2,700 more deaths than expected. This is shown by new calculations from the Institute of Public Health. The main reason is covid-19, new analyzes from FHI show.

The analyzes are preliminary, and may change when the figures for the whole of 2022 are available.

– The calculations show excess mortality in 2022. Most of the excess mortality is due to deaths related to covid-19, says Camilla Stoltenberg, director at FHI.

For the years 2020 and 2021 as a whole, the number of deaths was within the expected range. In 2021, however, the mortality rate was lower than expected at the beginning of the year, and higher than expected at the end of the year.

The analyzes from 2022 show a strong increase in deaths related to covid-19, but preliminary figures do not indicate major changes in other important groups of causes of death in 2022 compared to the years before the pandemic.

Most of the excess mortality in 2022 therefore appears to be attributable to covid-19, writes FHI.

The scourge of the elderly

From the beginning of the pandemic until week 46 in 2022, there have been 4,399 covid-19-associated deaths. About two-thirds of these deaths occurred in 2022, with a peak in March.

Covid-19 has, as Aftenposten wrote earlier this year, always been the scourge of the elderly. This year, the trend has been even clearer.

The median age at death related to covid-19 has been 85.6 years in 2022.

– It is the weakest elderly, those who have many chronic diseases and who are very frail and as we have previously seen have a clear excess mortality from influenza, which also has an excess mortality from covid-19, Anette Ranhoff has told Aftenposten. She is a specialist in internal medicine and geriatrics, professor at the University of Bergen, senior researcher at FHI and senior physician at Diakonhjemmet hospital.

Deaths may have been staggered

For the years 2020 and 2021 as a whole, the number of deaths is within what is expected.

In the winter of 2020/2021, however, mortality was lower than expected, while it was higher than expected in the second half of 2021.

From and including the second half of 2021 and in 2022, there is an increase in mortality among those over 60, but no change in the population under 60.

Mortality was highest and increased most in the oldest age groups, and particularly among those over 90.

For the latter half of 2021, the increase in mortality in the elderly may be due to a shift in deaths that was avoided when society had strict infection control restrictions in 2020 and early 2021.

– The increase in mortality in the elderly at the end of 2021 may be due to a shift in deaths from previous years. In the latter half of 2021, we see that more people will die from the major cause-of-death groups such as cardiovascular disease, cancer and dementia.

This could mean that deaths that were avoided when society had strict infection control measures in 2020 and early 2021, occurred when society was opened up again, says Camilla Stoltenberg.

Excess mortality in 2022 directly linked to covid-19

However, the excess mortality observed in 2022 appears to be more directly attributable to an increase in covid-19 deaths.

In 2022, there does not appear to be an increase in these major groups of causes of death compared to the years before the pandemic.

The highest number of deaths occurred in March 2022. Norway then experienced a very large wave of infection in connection with the more contagious omicron variant and the reopening of society in January and February 2022.

Omikron leads to a less severe course of covid-19 than its predecessors, but because the number of people infected was so enormous, the number of deaths also increased.

It is still too early to conclude how the covid-19 pandemic has affected mortality in the Norwegian population.

– It remains to be seen whether 2022 is a year that stands out, or whether the increase in mortality is part of a long-term trend. It is therefore important to continue monitoring mortality and causes of death, says Stoltenberg.