Delays have become the rule when investing in the Armed Forces. The sector underestimates operation and maintenance. And learn a little from old mistakes.
Published: 08/05/2024 09:00 | Updated: 08/05/2024 10:24
The short version
- Delays are standard in defense investments, according to a study from the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI). This is due to weaknesses in planning and implementation.
The summary is created with the help of artificial intelligence (AI) and quality assured by Aftenposten’s journalists.
Short version is for subscribers only
NOK 600 billion more will be spent on the Armed Forces over the next 12 years. How is it going to go? If the past is a yardstick, there will be both delays and overruns.
The Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI) has come up with a brand new study. It was presented on Wednesday morning. They have found out how the Norwegian Armed Forces cope with large investments in new equipment. And they have suggested improvements.
This is the most important thing from the report:
1. Weaknesses in planning and implementation
Major delays in the implementation of the investments. It has been the norm for many years. This is due to both planning and execution.
The cost estimates made in an early phase are often too low. This can be explained by changed assumptions and insufficient planning. But those involved’s games about limited resources, political pressure and excessive optimism are also factors.
2. Pays too little attention to the operation itself
Operating costs are given little weight in investment decisions, the researchers state. The problem is as big as in 2015, the study shows.
The backdrop is that much of the extra money for the Armed Forces will go to major investments. Just the purchase of five new frigates with helicopters is estimated to cost NOK 125 billion.
The price for operation and maintenance will eventually become high.
3. Play for the money
It is unclear which factors determine the prioritization of projects. The current long-term plan is leading, but other things also play a role. They are not known.
There is “a game” going on around the use of money, according to the players themselves. Different environments have different interests. It can influence which choices are made and create fertile ground for mistrust.
4. Little emphasis on climate and environment
The defense sector places little emphasis on climate and the environment when investing.
This is clear from both project data, interviews and the surveys that have been carried out.
5. Uses more “off the shelf”
The study has made two positive findings.
One is that cost control in the implementation phase of projects is generally good.
The second concerns the purchase of “off-the-shelf” items. In other words, material that has been fully developed and is commercially available. The proportion of such purchases is increasing. This means less use of time and money.
Why is such a study important?
– In recent years, a lot of money has been spent on material investments. In the coming years, it will be significantly more. It is important to contribute to ensuring that the Armed Forces actually get a real effect from it. And that society’s funds are used responsibly, says research manager Jan Erik Voldhaug to Aftenposten.
He also points to the importance of having facts on the table, as this is the subject of much debate.
– The material must last a long time. Today’s decisions may have to be lived with for 40 years or more, research leader Ane Ofstad Presterud points out.
The FFI study also contains a series of suggestions for improvements. Read more about them below here:
The professor is still skeptical
Paal Hilde is a professor at the Department of Defense Studies. He warned last year against giving the Armed Forces too much money: – Historically speaking, the Armed Forces are unable to manage themselves in a very good way.
He’s not safe yet.
Hilde is calling for a clear strengthening of the chief of defence’s ability for holistic management, and a better system for measuring the effect of measures and investments.
– I have to say that I don’t see the light at the end of that tunnel yet, he says to Aftenposten.
The Chief of Defense: Requires good control
Chief of Defense Eirik Kristoffersen acknowledges that the plan will require “good control, cooperation and great implementation ability” from the entire sector. He writes that in this comment to the plan.
The government states that the need for rapid acquisitions places new demands on the defense sector: This consideration is “weighed against the risk this entails for sound implementation”, it says.
