Parts of Norway may remain under water

If global warming continues as it is today, the sea will rise along most of the Norwegian coast. And the higher the temperatures on earth become, the more the seas rise.

This is among the conclusions in the report “Sea level rise and extremes in Norway”. It has been prepared by the Norwegian Climate Services Center and the Nansen Center on behalf of the Norwegian Environment Agency.

The report, which is presented today, paints a picture of how sea levels in Norway will rise towards the middle and end of this century.

When sea level rise is combined with storm surge (high water during a storm) and wave action, it can have significant consequences along our long coast, explains Director of the Norwegian Environment Agency, Ellen Hambro.

– Several areas may be under water – periodically or permanently – in the future. We have to take that into account when planning land use and try to prevent serious consequences, she says in a press release.

In the report, the researchers have calculated approximately how much the sea will rise in various warming scenarios, which are presented in this case.

– About to change

Global warming causes seas to rise.

This happens partly because warmer water takes up more space, and partly because glaciers on land melt and the water ends up in the sea.

In Norway, sea level rise will be different along different parts of the coast, because the effect of land uplift since the last ice age varies from place to place.

– In Norway, we have so far experienced the consequences of sea level rise to a small extent, since land uplift compensates for rising sea levels. However, this report shows that the situation is about to change. In some places, we already see that the sea is rising more than the land is rising, says the environment director.

Hit first

Three parts of the country are particularly exposed: parts of Northern Norway, Southern Norway and Western Norway. Here the sea rises fastest.

The latter two will first “experience more frequent flooding from the sea”, writes the Norwegian Environment Agency.

The reason is that the land in these areas rises more slowly than, for example, around the Oslofjord and in central Norway.

In a scenario with 3 degrees of warming, which we are moving towards with current policy, Oslo, for example, could experience -10 to 40 centimeters relative change in sea level.

By comparison, Stavanger can get between 20 and 70 centimeters.

– Thousands of years

“A sea level rise of a few decimetres may sound undramatic, but such a change increases the risk of flooding from the sea. Exposed areas are flooded more often, and the water will reach further inland,” writes the directorate, before they become even clearer:

“In the long term, parts of Norway will remain under water as a result of sea level rise.”

If the global average temperature increases by more than 2 degrees, the risk of significant sea level rise in Norway increases.

It will also be able to affect the lives of our descendants in the foreseeable future, the researchers believe:

– Due to the long response time of the sea and the inland ice to a warmer climate, the sea level rise we are already seeing today will continue for hundreds to thousands of years to come, says the director of the environment.

X factor

At the same time, Hambro emphasizes that there is “considerable uncertainty” about the outcome. It largely depends on how much the cairn manages to cut greenhouse gas emissions:

– At the same time as we prepare for what is to come, all countries must therefore work hard to avoid the most dramatic consequences that will affect the generations that come after us.

Another X-factor comes into play, namely ice loss from Antarctica.

If this ice melts quickly, some places along the coast – especially Stavanger and Bergen – could experience a sea level rise of almost two meters by the year 2100.

And if the ice loss from Antarctica continues to accelerate, we could get rises of between 4.5 and 5 meters by the year 2150, the report says.