Former US Secretary of Defense and CIA Director, Leon Panetta, promotes a heavy message in a column published on the website Politico. Panetta is crystal clear: “If Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the United States must respond with military force.”
Panetta, who served as both defense secretary and CIA director during the Obama administration, also points to startling estimates and probability calculations about Russian use of nuclear weapons.
“Increasingly isolated and cornered, Vladimir Putin continues to threaten the use of so-called battlefield nuclear weapons in an attempt to gain a military advantage on the ground in Ukraine. “Some intelligence analysts now believe that the probability of the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine has increased from 1-5 percent at the start of the war to 20-25 percent today,” writes Panetta in a column published in Politico on Thursday.
Panetta does not provide any sources for the probability calculations he refers to. It is unclear whether Panetta is basing himself on any intelligence analytic calculations (if he even has access to them) or expert opinions in the media.
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– A little less unlikely than before
Nettavisen has asked former chief of defense and retired general Sverre Diesen, who is a researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI), about how he interprets this probability calculation that Panetta refers to.
– Probability calculations are very difficult when we are dealing with an individual (Putin) who now assesses these things based on other factors than we are considering. It is difficult to say anything more than that Russian use of a nuclear weapon has become a little less improbable than it has been in the past, says Diesen to Nettavisen.
In April, CNN interviewed two anonymous intelligence sources who are said to have had knowledge of the US’s latest intelligence assessments. At the time, one intelligence source told CNN that there was a one percent probability that Putin would use nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war.
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Matthew Bunn is a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School. He is associated with the university’s Project on Managing the Atom (MTA) department, which conducts research on nuclear weapons and nuclear disarmament.
Bunn now estimates that it is 10 to 20 percent likely that Putin will be able to use a tactical nuclear weapon in the Ukraine conflict.
– For many things in life, one is satisfied with an 80 to 90 percent probability that something will not happen. But when it comes to the use of nuclear weapons for the first time in 77 years, 10 to 20 percent is simply unbearable, he tells the Boston Globe.
– My concern is that Putin believes that he cannot afford to lose the war, and at the moment I think that is exactly what he is doing, says Bunn.
Kjølv Egeland, who is a postdoctoral fellow at the Center for International Studies at Sciences Po in France, has previously spoken critically of probability calculations for the potential use of nuclear weapons. You can read the case here.
If the unthinkable were to happen, and Putin chooses to attack Ukraine with tactical nuclear weapons, it would put intense pressure on the US and NATO allies to respond.
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– We can’t afford to bluff either
Panetta further advocates that the US and NATO must make it abundantly clear to Putin that the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine will trigger an enormous response. Panetta writes that the United States must be prepared to use military means, including air power and cruise missile strikes, to ensure that Putin cannot threaten Ukraine with nuclear weapons.
“When I was Minister of Defense I heard arguments that the use of this type of weapon (nuclear weapons) could be limited and targeted in a way that would not result in nuclear war. The problem with that kind of rationalization is that retaliation knows no bounds. Any attack will require a stern response. And any tough response could risk a risk of escalation. It is precisely because any use of nuclear weapons is so unthinkable that Putin cannot be allowed to continue his threats without realizing the full consequences for him and his regime. He says he’s not bluffing. Nor can we afford to bluff,” writes Panetta.
“This is both a dangerous and a crucial moment in Ukraine – dangerous because Putin might as well resort to nuclear weapons, but crucial because success in Ukraine could send a strong message to all democracies that brave fighting peoples and nations can stand up to thugs around around the world. This is one of those special moments in history. The United States and our allies have the opportunity to demonstrate the importance of global leadership in the 21st century,” concludes Panetta.
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A senior NATO source, who wished to remain anonymous, told Reuters on Wednesday that a Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine would “most likely trigger a physical response from many allies, and potentially from NATO itself.”
– More and more forces demand a strong and united response from NATO if Putin actually resorts to using nuclear weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine. What kind of response are we talking about then, Diesen?
– There will probably not be a unified NATO response in the sense that all countries will contribute forces. In that case, there will be a consensus among all NATO countries that they must react. It will then be up to individual NATO countries whether and in what way to react. We are primarily talking about NATO countries such as the United States and perhaps the most important European allies such as Great Britain and France. Then it will not be a question of ground forces, but of aircraft, missiles and the type of weapons that come “over the horizon” from sea- and air-based platforms, says Diesen.
The nuclear power and NATO member France, which has opted out of NATO’s nuclear weapons policy, has now stated that it will not under any circumstances use its nuclear weapons against Russia in the event of a Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine.
– I don’t think Putin will do it
Last week, US President Biden stated that the world risks “Armageddon” and that the nuclear threat has not been greater since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.
On Tuesday this week, Biden was asked directly by CNN whether he thought Putin would use nuclear weapons.
– I don’t think he will do it, Biden replied.
– But he cannot actually continue with impunity to talk about the use of tactical nuclear weapons as if it is a rational thing to do, said Biden.
– Mistakes can be made and miscalculations can occur, and no one can know for sure what will happen and it could end in Armageddon, Biden said in the CNN interview.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has also warned Putin that the use of nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war could have far-reaching consequences.
– Do you think the strong warnings from President Joe Biden and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reach Putin, Diesen?
– He registers them, of course, but what impression it makes is eventually difficult to judge, because we are dealing with a person who, by all accounts, is in a state where his judgment is affected by developments on the ground in Ukraine. His judgment and reaction to these warnings are obviously different today than they would have been two months ago, says Diesen.
Russian inventory of precision-guided weapons
– Is there any indication that Putin is about to run out of precision weapons, and that this could increase the risk of him resorting to the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
– There is enough intelligence information on the Russian inventory of precision-guided weapons. But I have no insight into that. However, there are other indications that Russia has fewer of these weapons, such as, for example, that they are now used less often. In that sense, it was a surprising move that Russia chose to use so many of these weapons in the retaliatory attack for the action against the Kerch Bridge (Crimea Bridge), Diesen says, referring to the violent rocket attacks against Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities on Monday.
– It shows the inability of those in power to rationalize when they waste valuable weapons on civilian targets in Ukraine just to show that they have the ability to retaliate. It says that it is almost more important to take revenge than to accomplish anything on the battlefield, says Diesen.
Jakub M. Godzimirski, who is a senior researcher at NUPI, says it is difficult to estimate the size of Russia’s stockpile of advanced weapons.
– There has been a lot of speculation about Russia’s stockpile of weapons and ammunition. A few months ago it was claimed that they had already used 60 percent of their precision weapons. But that kind of information must be taken with a grain of salt. We really know very little about what kind of inventory Russia has of advanced weapons, says Godzimirski to Nettavisen.
It is estimated that Russia has about 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons. Western intelligence closely follows developments in Russia.
Both NATO and the White House have stated that there are no movements, visible signs of mobilization on the ground or changes in the array of Russian nuclear weapons, which could indicate preparations for an imminent nuclear attack on Ukraine.
Tags: NATO Nuclear weapons ExCIA director probability nuclear attack increased percent
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