The Japanese currency dropped as much as 1.2% to 160.17 per dollar on Monday amid thinned liquidity due to a local public holiday, before trading at 159.17 as investors pile on bearish positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting later this week.
“Will a dog chase an airborne frisbee? Yes, markets appear to be trying to push the dollar-yen towards 160 in the absence of official intervention,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore. “It shows extreme speculation in the spot and options space as well, and how investors are so hyper-sensitive to anything yen and risk of intervention.”
The move in the yen comes before the US central bank is scheduled to hold a policy meeting during which it may signal the need to keep interest rates elevated amid sticky inflation — a move that will support the dollar and undermine the appeal of yen assets.
The Bank of Japan last week indicated financial conditions will remain easy, although policymakers have repeatedly warned that depreciation won’t be tolerated if it goes too far too fast. Earlier this month, the nation’s finance minister also flagged concerns over the yen’s decline to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, which market participants saw as laying the groundwork for intervention.
