Expert: The defense budget must be doubled – Something must be done immediately

This year’s defense budget is NOK 91 billion. Researcher Magnus Håkenstad at the Department of Defense Studies at the Norwegian Defense Academy states that the budget should be almost doubled.

– Norway’s use of money for the Armed Forces has been abnormally low since the 1990s. If the Norwegian Armed Forces are to provide us with the security we now need, and maintain the commitments to NATO, something must be done immediately with the allocations, says Magnus Håkenstad.

– Provocative

He has been responsible for several of the Norwegian Defense College’s studies in preparedness, crisis management, total defense and social security. He is regarded as one of the foremost in defense reform.

From quantity to quality

Håkenstad notes that the state of the Norwegian Armed Forces, and society’s unwillingness to prioritize military security, is a complex problem: Well 30 years after the fall of the Wall, the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the state of our armed forces could have been far better.

– Today, the Norwegian Armed Forces have a bit of everything, but not enough of anything. Our ambition is still to have a complete, modern defence, and in order to achieve that, since 1990, we have “shredded” ourselves down to a minimum in many areas. Today, we have a defense that in a war situation is not credible. But the starting point is not at all bad, because we have still kept some of everything we need, and thus a good starting point for strengthening.

– Much of what is in the Armed Forces is good. The defense has gone from quantity to quality, perhaps a little too far, says Håkenstad.

The Norwegian Armed Forces were heavily built up in the 1950s and 1960s, and during the Cold War Norway spent between 3 and 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) on defence.

But after the collapse of the Soviet Union, budgets flattened and the cuts began. After 2010, there was again fairly usable growth. The problem is that even this growth was not enough, because a complete defense is insanely expensive.

Two percent

Håkenstad points out that NATO’s goal that all member states must spend two percent of GDP on their defense is not much, historically speaking. He points out that two per cent is the “maintenance level”, what is needed to continue the organisation. Strengthening requires more.

– Must be worried

– In the exceptional year 1952, the year in which the most investment was made in the Armed Forces, Norway spent almost a third of the national budget. During the rest of the Cold War, the share of the state budget was approximately twelve percent. Today, we spend no more than approximately 4.8 per cent of the national budget.

– What is needed from investments in the Armed Forces?

– To start with the Navy: During the next 10 to 15 years, most of the fleet must be replaced. New submarines have been ordered, but frigates, coastguard vessels and smaller vessels will soon expire.

– Both the Defense Commission, the Chief of Defence’s Professional Military Council and FFI’s analyzes indicate that it will cost several hundreds of billions of kroner. Warships have always been one of the most expensive things out there, points out Håkenstad

“Unprotected”

He agrees with defense chief Eirik Kristoffersen, who stated to Dagbladet that it is urgent and that Norway should buy the same equipment that other NATO countries buy, whenever possible.

– Both in procurement and in a war situation, it is a great advantage to have the same equipment as our allies, says Håkenstad, referring to both ammunition and spare parts.

– We have bought new fighters, and around 40 have now been delivered. But the country also needs air defense. Today we only have enough for two areas – the air bases on Ørlandet and Evenes.

Norway must now comply with NATO requirements

– We need more air defense immediately. It should be a no-brainer that the Norwegian-developed NASAMS from Kongsberg Gruppen today protects Washington DC and is used with great success in Ukraine. While both the population and vital Norwegian social institutions are today unprotected.

Håkenstad also points to the need for long-range anti-aircraft missiles, to protect us against high-speed missiles and rockets.

Old equipment

– The Air Force must also renew an aging helicopter fleet. Today we are without helicopters for the frigates, the coast guard and the special forces.

Håkenstad estimates that the Swedish Armed Forces need several tens of new helicopters. Six new ones have been ordered – the cost is stipulated at no less than NOK 12 billion.

– What about the Army?

– The army has a good mix of old and new. The storm tank fleet has been updated and new tanks have already been ordered. But Norway needs new vehicles, field vehicles, trucks and ambulances. Parts of the fleet have veteran car status, they are over 40 years old, and should have been changed a long time ago.

– The war in Ukraine has shown that drones are very important. Norway needs everything from large surveillance drones to small attack drones and not least protection against enemy drones.

Håkenstad points out that there is a rapid development of military equipment, and that it costs money. But at the same time says that Norway cannot afford not to.

– The army also needs more personnel, which also costs money.

Doubling

Today there are around 18,000 employees in the Armed Forces, with conscripts and the Home Guard the armed forces total around 70,000 soldiers. They must be equipped with everything from weapons to clothing. There are also major shortcomings here, confirms Håkenstad.

The researcher at the Institute for Defense Studies also points out that Norway currently lacks ammunition worth at least NOK 30 billion.

– The defense budget is currently NOK 91 billion. In order to get a defense that will work in war, we have to expect to spend up to twice as much, at least in a build-up phase of 5-10 years. Then you can perhaps scale back somewhat after the heaviest investments have been made. But also a new, sustainable normal level will have to be much higher than today.

“Never too late”

– How does Norway come out when we compare ourselves to the other Nordic countries?

– In Finland, they can sleep better at night. The Swedes threw themselves around and started construction a few years ago. Even the Danes have come further than Norway when it comes to changing course.

– Is it too late for Norway?

– It’s never too late. But we must be aware that it takes time to renew and restore the Armed Forces. It can take up to ten years to get the equipment in place. But a lot can also be done relatively quickly.

– Critical voices have questioned allocations to Ukraine compared to what Norway spends on our own defence?

– I see no contradiction here. Strengthening the Norwegian Armed Forces and the Western defense industry puts us in a better position to support Ukraine. And if Ukraine were to succumb, we would have to arm ourselves far more. Strongly increased support for Ukraine’s defense struggle is the best prevention, and is also morally the only right thing.