Nothing like this has ever happened in the last hundred years since the United States emerged from the Western Hemisphere as an imperialist power—that an adversary stormed into one of its military bases abroad.
A military base is considered sovereign territory and unauthorized entry constitutes a violation, especially in the case of Russia, a rival superpower. Still, Washington and Moscow play down the coexistence of their military personnel at the US air base near Niamey, the capital of Niger, known as Airbase 101.
In the cacophony of the proxy war in Ukraine, the news was perhaps toned down when US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin insisted that there was no “significant problem” with such coexistence in Niger. Austin explained: “The Russians are in a separate area and do not have access to US forces or access to our equipment. I am always focused on the safety and protection of our troops. But right now I don’t see a significant problem here in terms of our force protection”.
Such uncharacteristic reticence on the part of the Pentagon chief has probably arisen because Washington is in no position to eject the Russians now that Nigerian authorities have canceled Status of Forces– the agreements with the United States.
On the other hand, the Russian military personnel – reportedly drawn from the newly formed Afrika Korps consisting of the former Wagner Group – arrived in Niger three weeks ago at the invitation of the Nigerien government.
Similarly, Washington must also have taken into account that Niger’s military, which had previously worked closely with the US while seeking cooperation with Russia, does not go as far as a full embrace of Moscow like its neighbors Mali and Burkina Faso. No doubt it signals Niger’s so-called “diversification of international partnerships” plan that keeps open the prospect of an American comeback.
In any case, Austin must be aware that this impasse in US-Niger ties is largely attributable to the State Department’s mishandling in officially labeling the military takeover in Niamey last July as a “coup.” The Rubicon was crossed in October when Washington triggered laws limiting the military support and aid it can provide to Niger.
This punitive measure ignored that Niger remained a key partner and ally in a region plagued by coups in recent years, where the US had invested over $100 million in its Agadez base, which has been critical to US drone operations in the Sahel, blowing hundreds of millions of dollars also into the training programs for Niger’s military since 2013.
Looking back, some of the coup leaders were actually trained in US military academies. In short, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stepped in the salad. It was after a stormy meeting in Niamey in mid-March, when senior US officials protested the expected arrival of Russian forces, that the Nigerian generals decided enough was enough and called for the withdrawal of US troops. Washington did not expect something so extreme to happen.
There is no doubt that the Russians (who did not even have an embassy in Niamey) have come prepared for a long-term stay. The Russian military “trainers” have even brought an anti-aircraft system with them. But when asked about the deployment, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov parried, saying: “We are developing ties with various African countries in all areas, including the military. They are interested in it, we are also interested in it. And we will continue to develop our relationship with African states”.
Russia is taking advantage of the opportunities following a telephone conversation between the head of Niger’s military regime, General Abdourahamane Tiani, and President Vladimir Putin on March 26 to “strengthen security cooperation.” Moscow had previously promoted the formation of the so-called Alliance of Sahel States, AES, a mutual defense pact established between Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso last September, thus effectively neutralizing the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which on the West’s line and who at one point toyed with the idea of a military intervention in Niger (with French support) to restore it old regime to the deposed president Mohamed Bazoum who is in custody.
Read: Sahel’s “axis of resistance”
Suffice it to say that Russia’s Africa Corps has a job cut out for them – it’s a big challenge going forward as Moscow takes on the role of security provider. The more the US becomes paranoid about Russia’s foreign trade under the conditions of sanctions, the greater the relevance of Africa as a partner in Moscow’s international order. There are indications that Russia is coordinating a regional regional security strategy in West Africa.
In retrospect, it appears that Washington has made a sober assessment of what went wrong with Niger. The news channel PBS had a riveting interview last week on this hot topic with Peter Pham, former US ambassador and special envoy for the Sahel region. Ambassador Pham noted that the eviction from the two bases in Niger “is going to be a very significant loss and setback.”
He admitted with extraordinary candor that “we [USA] could have been more attuned to the fact that the winds of change were sweeping across Africa”.
“Political elites are highly discredited in these Sahel countries. Just because there is an additional overthrow of the government does not mean that what was there before was necessarily a Jeffersonian democracy”.
“And also, quite frankly, our French friends and allies are partners, but they have a lot of baggage in this region. There is widespread unrest around them. There has been some dirty laundry at the connection [med Frankrike]».
“We probably could have handled the situation much better in terms of being attuned to what was happening, the dynamics, and also engagement with the regimes that have emerged … The region had a crisis of state legitimacy. The governments did not provide basic goods, services and protection to their people. People want protection, security”.
Pham stressed: “The only big mistake we make is trying to force them to choose us or the other guy… But they [Kina og Russland] offers faster solutions. We tell them [afrikanske eliter] “us or them” very often. Because they [Russland og Kina] can deliver quickly and immediately, it becomes the easiest thing for the junta or other leaders to choose… In the short term, what they give these new regimes, the military regimes, is a security blanket. It is about the survival of the regime.” (here)
There is merit in the ambassador’s remarks, and moreover, the China National Petroleum Corporation has invested close to 5 billion dollars in Niger’s petroleum industry and constructed a 2,000 km long pipeline from the interior of Niger to Benin’s Atlantic coast, while at the same time they have a two-thirds equity in the Agadem oil field. CNPC signed an agreement with Niamey last month for a $400 million loan as a “lifeline” after the generals cut ties with France and the United States – to be repaid with crude oil shipments within twelve months at an interest rate of seven percent.
This article was published on the blog of MK Bhadrakumar.
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1786968298636423210?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
