NEWS ANALYSIS: The smiles were wide when Emmanuel Macron welcomed the Chinese leader to Paris. But a crisis between China and the West is difficult to avoid.
Published: 06/05/2024 22:32 | Updated: 06/05/2024 23:09
Cheering crowds stood ready as Xi Jinping drove from the airport into Paris on Sunday night. Some waved large flags, both Chinese and French. Others waved tactfully and energetically to the visiting Chinese leader.
“Long live Franco-Chinese relations!” Xi could read on one of the red banners held up along the road as his motorcade drove past.
A spontaneous celebration, according to state Chinese media. Carefully planned by the Chinese authorities, according to a former Chinese diplomat.
Critical protesters, however, were not as visible, although some managed to unfurl a “Free Tibet” banner from a footbridge as Xi approached.
Charm offensive
For Emmanuel Macron, it is important to give Xi a warm welcome. The French president does not want to become part of the emerging crisis that is brewing between the United States and China. He also wants good trade relations with China.
Macron is a strong supporter of the power of dialogue. In 2022, he tried to persuade Russian leader Vladimir Putin not to attack Ukraine. It went badly. This time, he hopes to persuade Xi Jinping to stay out of the same war. That too will be a difficult task.
Xi, for his part, wants to mount a charm offensive, just as he did when he hosted Macron in Beijing last year. The Chinese leader feels – rightly – that the US is in the process of building an alliance in East Asia to counter China’s increasingly strong global position.
In recent years, Joe Biden has strengthened cooperation with Japan, South Korea and the Philippines. The Americans have also just decided to strengthen military support for Taiwan. Macron, for his part, refused during his visit to China last year to say anything about how he would react if China were to attack Taiwan.
No red carpet
Relations between the US and China are on a collision course. Dissatisfaction goes both ways. When US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Beijing two weeks ago, he was not even greeted with a red carpet at the airport. And the US is threatening new sanctions if China does not take a greater distance from Russia’s warfare in Ukraine.
China claims to be neutral in that war. At the same time, the Chinese sell enormous amounts of non-military equipment to the Russians. They also buy oil from Russia, which makes it easier for Russian energy companies to live with the sanctions from the EU and other Western countries.
The war in Ukraine, on the other hand, is costing Europe very dearly. Dissatisfaction with China’s role in the war is therefore also increasing. Even the Norwegian authorities, who tend to be more cautious than the EU leaders, have started to speak loudly about the problem. For Macron, it would be a major victory if he could get Xi to change course.
The question is what Xi has to gain from it. He and Putin have the same vision for the global society of the future, namely a world in which the US and the West have less power than today. Should Russia lose in Ukraine, it will also weaken Xi.
For China’s leader, it would be an advantage if the United States and Europe stood together as little as possible. It strengthens his own position if the political distance across the Atlantic is the greatest possible. And it is also an important reason why he is now carrying out a charm offensive in France.
Fear of electric car dumping
But there are at least two other, major obstacles that stand in the way of Macron being able to call this state visit a success.
One is the emerging trade war between Europe and China. European companies fear that Chinese overproduction of goods, especially electric cars, will lead to these goods being “dumped” on the European market at prices that will be impossible for local manufacturers to compete against.
– Competition: Yes. Dumping: No. That must be our motto, said EU President Ursula von der Leyen last week.
She had to travel to Paris this weekend for an opportunity to speak with Xi Jinping. He does not have Brussels on his itinerary. Instead, he goes on to far more friendly countries, namely Serbia and Hungary.
The visit to Serbia is perhaps the most symbolic of these. Xi will mark the 25th anniversary of the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade on May 7, 1999. The bombing caused enormous fury in China, and Xi’s visit will be a clear signal that this fury has not completely ended.
Hacker attack
The other obstacle to the success of Xi’s Paris visit concerns hacking. In recent weeks, there have been increasingly new revelations about extensive hacking of European politicians who have been critical of the Chinese regime. Such attacks are difficult to ignore.
They also make it more difficult for Macron to conduct a dialogue that could lead to a better atmosphere between China and the West.
