– We don’t really know what to expect.
That’s what Páll Einarsson says to NRK.
He is professor emeritus at the University of Iceland and one of the leading volcano experts in the country.
Since November last year, there have been four volcanic eruptions on Saga Island. The most recent one started on 16 March and is not finished yet.
In and of itself, volcanic eruptions are not that unusual in Iceland, but now a new situation has arisen that surprises experts.
Because while the eruption continues, the soil rises in the area. The rising ground is a sign that it is accumulating magma under the ground – which is again a sign that a volcanic eruption may be on the way.
It is “only” about a few centimeters, so it is not possible to see with the naked eye.
But with the help of information from satellites, the researchers can see the development clearly and distinctly.
The vertical red lines mark a volcanic eruption. The red dots show how the soil has risen, little by little. It is such graphs that the researchers monitor to estimate when a new outbreak may occur.
Photo: Screenshot / Veðurstofa Íslands
In connection with the last four eruptions, it has been seen that an eruption usually occurs when between 8 and 13 million cubic meters of magma has accumulated underground.
The researchers now estimate that around 10 million cubic meters have accumulated in the area around the Svartsengi power plant.
Thus, a new outbreak may be on the way – while the previous outbreak is still ongoing.
Since November 2023, there have been four volcanic eruptions in the red-marked area.
Can open new cracks
Einarsson compares the whole thing to a car tire with a hole in it.
You can pump more air into the tire, but as long as there is a hole there it will be difficult to get enough pressure.
– What seems to be happening now is that the pressure in the tire increases – even if it is leaking. We are surprised by this situation, says Einarsson.
Páll Einarsson is one of the leading volcano experts in Iceland. He says the current situation is characterized by a lot of uncertainty.
Photo: Private
He had expected that the ongoing outbreak would be larger due to increased pressure, but that has not happened.
– It is a very unusual situation, he says.
Even at the Meteorological Institute, they are unsure of what may now happen.
– We have not seen before that we have volcanic eruptions and earth uplift at the same time. So there is considerable uncertainty about what will happen.
That’s what Benedikt Ófeigsson at the Meteorological Institute in Iceland says to broadcaster RÚV.
The experts believe that the most likely thing is that magma starts to move underground in the area, or that today’s eruption will be bigger.
This also increases the risk that new volcanic fissures may open.
– Very dangerous scenario
New cracks can also appear at very short notice.
It worries many, especially if it is similar to the previous case. Then a 2-3 kilometer long fissure could potentially open up.
The volcanic fissure that opened in the earth’s crust on March 16 was about 3 kilometers long.
Photo: Handout/coastguard in Iceland / AFP
– If there are people nearby then it is a very dangerous scenario, and it is not possible to notify people in time, says Ófeigsson to RÚV.
The police on the Reykjaneshalvøya have asked people to stay away from the area due to the risk of another outbreak.
– It can come with very short notice and thus the area becomes more dangerous with each passing day, the police wrote in an update on Facebook.
Páll Einarsson also urges people to be careful and take precautions in the coming weeks, while uncertainty prevails.
Because a volcanic eruption is always most dangerous at the beginning, when a crack opens and the lava flows out at full speed.
– The first hour can be very dangerous. One must ensure that there are not many people in the area, he says.
Einarsson nevertheless underlines that Iceland is generally well prepared for volcanic eruptions.
Many by accident
The four volcanic eruptions since November 2023 have had major consequences for many Icelanders.
In particular, the residents of the tiny town of Grindavík have noticed uncertainty about their bodies.
They were evacuated from their hometown at the beginning of November, and have only been allowed to move back home for periods.
In January, something also happened that has not happened on Saga Island since 1973: A volcanic eruption happened in a developed area.
Three houses in Grindavík ended up completely or partially under the lava.
In the live image, the residents could see how the lava was approaching their houses.
This is what it looked like when the lava flowed into Grindavík on 14 January 2024.
During the eruption in February, lava also flowed over the hot water supply to large parts of the Reykjanes peninsula.
Hot water is also used to heat houses in Iceland, and thus several thousand inhabitants were left without heat for several days.
Tags: Great uncertainty Iceland volcanic eruption NRK Urix Foreign news documentaries
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