Russia is preparing for large-scale military conflict with NATO

If Ukraine were to fall, the risk of a major war would increase, analysts believe.

The American think tank, Institute for the Study of War (ISW), believes that there are many indications that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conventional conflict with NATO.

– It will not happen immediately, but probably in a shorter time than what some Western analysts have suggested, writes ISW in a recent analysis that ended on Wednesday this week.
ISW provides regular analyzes of comprehensive reports on the development of the war in Ukraine. In the past, they have produced reports on the Syrian civil war, the war in Afghanistan and the Iraq war.

Preparations for a conflict

ISW writes that “the Russian military continues to implement structural reforms while supporting the war in Ukraine. In the long term, Russia’s conventional capacity will be preparations for a potential future large-scale conflict with NATO.”
The war has been in full swing since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

In his speech to the Federation Council on February 29, Putin emphasized the importance of developing the Russian economy and military capacity.

In the analysis, ISW believes that Russia does not appear to be facing an imminent financial crisis. Increased military spending has been the most important change in Russian budget policy.

Several heads of state in NATO have warned against Russia’s possible plans to escalate the war. The Ukraine war has triggered the deepest crisis in Moscow’s relations with the West since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.

ISW refers to Polish President Andrzej Duda’s interview with the American TV channel CNBC. Duda believes that Putin is intensifying his efforts to strengthen Russia’s war economy.

– The intention is for Russia to be able to attack NATO as early as 2026 or 2027, says Duda, referring to unspecified German research.

Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen stated on February 9 that new intelligence indicates that Russia will attempt to attack a NATO country within three to five years.

Reforms are to increase Russia’s combat capability

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu addressed the board of the Russian Ministry of Defense on 20 March. There, Shoigu outlined reforms that ISW believes will increase Russia’s combat capability in the long term. And that will prepare Russia for a potential conventional war with NATO – and not just as part of the war against Ukraine.

Shoigu claimed that the Russian military plans to form 14 divisions and 16 brigades by the end of 2024.

ISW believes that Russia today lacks manpower, military infrastructure and training capacity at army level. But the think tank writes that the reforms are more intended to develop Russia’s long-term military capabilities vis-à-vis NATO.

Ongoing personnel changes within the Russian Ministry of Defense should also be further indicators of Russia’s preparations for a long-term conflict, ISW believes.