Gabbie Marshall after reaching another Final Four: “There’s no other group I’d rather do it with.”
Gabbie Marshall after reaching another Final Four: “There’s no other group I’d rather do it with.”
Caitlin Clark and the No. 1 seed Iowa women’s basketball team will face No. 3 seed UConn in the women’s 2024 NCAA Tournament Final Four on Friday. The game is scheduled to tip off at 8:30 pm CT on ESPN.
The winner will advance to the national championship game.
The Hawkeyes are 33-4 after beating LSU, 94-87, on Monday, and the Huskies are 33-5 after beating USC, 80-73, on Monday.
Here’s a look at what to expect in Friday’s game:
Who are UConn women’s basketball’s best players?
The Huskies have one of the nation’s best players in Paige Bueckers, a former freshman sensation who’s returned to prime form this year after missing all of the 2022-23 season because of a knee injury.
She averages 21.9 points and 4.0 assists per game on 54.3/40.1/83.5 shooting splits. She has size, athleticism and can score from anywhere, making her a worthy matchup with Clark.
Aaliyah Edwards is an elite player as well. At 6-foot-3, she has significant size and scoring ability in the paint, which allows her to average 18.2 points and 9.8 rebounds per game on 60.4% shooting. She is a four-year veteran with experience and savvy, but Iowa proved against LSU that it is capable of handling bigger stars.
Ashlynn Shade (11.4 PPG) and KK Arnold (8.9 PPG) round out the Huskies’ top scorers, but UConn has also lost multiple key players to injury this campaign. That makes its deep postseason run all the more impressive and has everyone on the team extremely motivated to outperform expectations.
UConn women’s basketball is a true ‘blue blood’
There is no more historic women’s college basketball program than UConn. It is the only team with double-digit national titles, having won 11 from 1995 to 2016 under legendary head coach Geno Auriemma.
While the current Huskies players don’t have such championship pedigree, they went to a Final Four (2021) and national championship (2022) in the two seasons Bueckers was playing before she missed all of last year.
There’s also something to be said for both Auriemma’s extensive coaching expertise and the way in which he’s developed his upperclassmen leaders. It’s likely that, talent aside, UConn won’t be rattled and will deploy a strong game plan on both ends of the floor.
UConn matches up better against Iowa than LSU
Like LSU, UConn doesn’t just win, it wins big. The Huskies’ 23.5 average margin of victory is second in the nation, only behind undefeated South Carolina. But unlike LSU, which fell victim to a lack of perimeter shooting and one-dimensional play style, UConn is a more malleable group.
UConn is similar to Iowa in many ways: It shares the ball (fourth in the country in assists per game), it can score inside and outside, has a superstar guard and has postseason experience. Iowa won’t be able to pack the paint and deny post entries as easily as it did against LSU, yet Edwards still presents a mismatch in the paint for Hannah Stuelke and company.
The Huskies also defend the 3-point line well. Opponents shoot just 28.1% from deep against them, and while that almost certainly won’t stop Clark from taking and making triples, that could make the game more difficult on Gabbie Marshall and other role players.
Iowa women vs. UConn prediction in March Madness
Iowa 88, UConn 83
According to BetMGM, Iowa is a 2.5-point favorite over UConn. The over/under is 163.5, and the moneyline is Iowa (-155) and UConn (+125).
This is a terrific matchup on paper that can go either way. But Iowa gets the slight edge because of how well Clark is playing right now and her teammates repeated ability to follow her lead and rise to the occasion.
The true X-factor is how Iowa defends Edwards in the paint and if its bigs can avoid getting in foul trouble against her. Iowa did well against Angel Reese in the second half in the Elite Eight, but it was difficult to tell how hampered Reese was by the lower leg injury she suffered in the second quarter. And when more defensive attention was paid to her, her frontcourt mate, Aneesha Morrow, started getting open looks at the rim.
But Clark has proven she’s not the woman to bet against.
Gus Martin is a Digital Producer/Content Director for The Des Moines Register. Follow him on X at @GusMartin_DMR.
