– Russia lacks what it takes – Dagsavisen

Retired general Ben Hodges points to what he believes is a lack of Russian success in the country’s conventional warfare against Ukraine. He says Russian forces lack what it takes to succeed.

Vladimir Putin’s forces are “swelling out” at the front, the general explains, while Ukraine is going for a tactical withdrawal that limits the Russians from taking villages.

– Now we have reached April, and the Russians are swelling up. Why is that the case? I think this is the best Russia can do. They lack what it takes to knock Ukraine out of this war, says Hodges in an interview with Al Jazeera.

Russia and Ukraine expert Samuel Charap from the American think tank Rand has thought along the same lines. He also does not believe in victory for Russia and Putin. Instead, he has pointed to a ceasefire where no one agrees on which border they recognize as an international border, such as the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

– Although Ukraine is struggling in the war now, the most likely outcome is still a situation where neither party achieves an absolute victory. Neither Russia nor Ukraine has achieved their territorial goals, and both parties have the ability to pose a threat to the other once the fighting ceases, Charap told Dagsavisen earlier in April.

Putin and the “cowardice” of the West

General Ben Hodges, who has previously stated to the Finnish broadcaster Yle that “only force or threats of the use of force” can bring Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table, points, among other things, to several logistical problems for Russian forces in the war. The Russians do not have the ability to equip large armored formations that can move quickly with supporting artillery, the general believes.

And Hodges, who was previously the supreme commander of the American forces in Europe, goes on to tell Al Jazeera that the West has every opportunity to ensure a Russian defeat in the war, only Ukraine gets enough military and financial support.

– It’s just a matter (for the West and the USA, journ.am.) of dropping all the excuses and self-deterrence, says Hodges, who believes that countries in the West have been too cowardly in the face of Putin’s threats about nuclear weapons.

Also read: Trump ally with a message to Ukraine: – Just forget it

– Russia is deliberately playing on it

NATO’s former commander-in-chief in Europe, the retired US general Philip Breedlove, has also been on this track. He has accused NATO of letting fear rule. Breedlove believes the fear of what the nuclear power Russia can do, also in the event of a Putin loss, has been a strong factor in the West not having done more, wrote Dagsavisen recently.

– At the start of the war, we told Russia what we are afraid of – namely tactical nuclear weapons and an extended war. This is Putin playing back on us – every week he or his ministers say something about nuclear weapons, Breedlove has stated.

– I agree that Russia is deliberately playing on this by constantly threatening nuclear weapons, said Nupi researcher and NATO expert Karsten Friis to Dagsavisen about Breedlove’s move.

Also read: Putin receives a NATO warning from Poland: – You will lose that war

– Putin should not be allowed to control the choices we make

Russia expert Mark Galeotti says he understands what Hodges and Breedlove are saying about the West’s nuclear fears, but only to a certain extent.

– Putin will not be allowed to control the choices we make, but he and Russia still have opportunities to escalate in other ways than by using nuclear weapons. I think such schemes try to play on a narrative that the West is “morally bankrupt”, just because we don’t give Ukraine absolutely everything, says the Briton to Dagsavisen.

Galeotti is a historian, researcher and author, and heads the consulting firm Mayak Intelligence. The Briton is considered one of the world’s leading experts on international crime and security policy, with Russia as a special field. Among other things, he has written books such as “A Short History Of Russia”, “We Need To Talk About Putin” and “Putin’s Wars – From Chechnya to Ukraine”.

An example he cites that could potentially lead to an escalation in the war is if Ukraine uses weapons from the West that hit the Russian mainland.

– Of course we must support Ukraine, which is rightfully fighting for its independence and sovereignty. But that does not mean that the West does not have other interests to look after at the same time, Galeotti points out.

Also read: Poland summit on Trump and Ukraine: – Not black and white

Also read: General: – Now we have three choices. Only one of them can stop Putin

Also read: Russia expert: – Putin will never give it up

—

Facts about the war in Ukraine

• Russia and President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine with large forces on February 24, 2022.
• Russian forces and Russian-backed separatists previously controlled the Crimean peninsula and parts of the Ukrainian counties of Donetsk and Luhansk.
• Since the invasion, Russian forces have taken control of even more areas in eastern and southern Ukraine. The Russian-occupied areas now make up around 18 percent of the country.
• The fronts in the war have largely been deadlocked since autumn 2022.
• Ukraine’s and President Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s stated goal is to recapture all Russian-occupied territories, including the Crimean peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014.
• Western countries support Ukraine with large amounts of weapons and military equipment.
• Neither Ukraine nor Russia state how many soldiers they lose on the battlefield. It is estimated that up to 500,000 soldiers have been killed and wounded in the war, and the majority of these are said to be Russian.
• The UN has registered over 10,000 civilians killed in Ukraine, but the real number is probably much higher.
• 6.5 million Ukrainians have fled the country since the invasion, and another 3.7 million are internally displaced.

(Sources: UN, The New York Times, NTB)

—

Keep yourself updated. Get a daily newsletter from Dagsavisen