– Time is not on your side – Dagsavisen

– We must give Putin a clear message that time is not on his side, says a senior NATO source to NTB.

– There is a real conviction and will in all NATO countries to ensure that Ukraine wins. When we see that it is getting more difficult, like now, we have to make sure we take action to keep Ukraine afloat, says the NATO diplomat.

Build a bridge

This means, among other things, linking Ukraine more closely to NATO. How this is to be done will be one of the big questions leading up to the NATO summit in Washington in July.

Ukraine has long called for “strong and far-reaching steps” in the direction of membership, as the country’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba put it as recently as the end of March.

All NATO countries are determined that Ukraine will one day become a member. But that cannot happen as long as the war is going on.

One of the moves being discussed is for Nato to partially take over the management of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) – also called the Ramstein group – which is currently led by the United States.

From Nato’s side, it is said that it will ensure a more stable and long-term management of the group, which now consists of over 60 countries.

Trump in the shadows

For the US, it has suffered a scratch in the paint after a support package for Ukraine of 60 billion dollars has been stuck in Congress for months.

In addition, a possible election victory for Donald Trump lurks in the shadows. Trump’s statements about NATO, especially that he will not necessarily come to the aid of another NATO country if Russia attacks, have caused unrest in the ranks.

On Monday evening, it also became known that NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg wants a five-year package of 100 billion euros, almost NOK 1,200 billion, for Ukraine. This is partly to be a buffer in case Trump were to cut US support.

2024 could be black

In the EU, there is full focus on picking up the pace in the defense industry. But this takes time.

Therefore, 2024 could be the darkest year for Ukraine.

Recently, Russia has carried out massive airstrikes against Ukrainian cities and, among other things, cut off the electricity supply in several places. In addition, the Russian forces have made little progress on the battlefield.

This is not least due to the fact that Ukraine lacks air defense and artillery ammunition. According to NATO sources, Russia now has six times more artillery shells than Ukraine.

By next year, however, the hope is that built-in weaknesses in Russia will begin to be felt.

– Even though conditions are tough now, there is no panic, says another NATO source.

A meeting of the NATO/Ukraine Council has nevertheless been urgently called on Thursday.

Red line

Although France and Germany have made different statements about what the signals to Russia should be, one thing is absolutely certain: NATO should not become part of the war.

At the same time, NATO will not push Ukraine to enter into peace negotiations.

– We cannot trust Russia. Therefore, we also have no credible partner to negotiate with. There is no belief that Vladimir Putin will comply with an agreement, says one of the sources.

Rather, the hope is that the war will begin to burn for Russia over time.

Owned: – Completely new possibilities

This week’s meeting of foreign ministers in NATO will be historic in several ways:

It is the first time that Sweden is included as a full member of the alliance.

– This provides completely new opportunities in defense cooperation, especially in the north, says Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide (Ap).

He is present at the NATO meeting on Thursday, which is devoted, among other things, to marking the alliance’s 75th birthday.

In addition, a number of countries in Eastern Europe and the Baltics mark their 20th and 25th anniversaries respectively as NATO members.

Also read: Romania’s president will become NATO chief

Who will be Stoltenberg’s successor?

Another question which hangs in the air and which will probably create lively discussions on the sidelines of the foreign affairs meeting, is who will take over from Jens Stoltenberg.

The Netherlands’ Mark Rutte is said to be in the best position with the support of around 90 per cent of the NATO countries.

But that was before Romania’s president Klaus Iohannis surprisingly threw himself into the fray in mid-March.

To date, NATO has not had a Secretary General from Eastern Europe.

NATO statement from the US caused a stir

Statements by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin caused reactions in March, when he said he believes in a conflict between Russia and NATO if Ukraine loses the war against Russia. The Kremlin was stunned by the move.

NATO expert and Nupi researcher Karsten Friis then said the following to Dagsavisen about the minister’s statements:

– I think Austin is right, in the sense that if Russia wins, it will have significance far beyond Ukraine. This will mean that brute force wins, which means that we live in a different world to the rule-based one. Putin and other authoritarian leaders will then certainly feel empowered. They will continue the pressure on Europe and other democracies, even more than they already do through cyber operations, influence and sabotage.

The Nupi researcher believes this could lead to an extremely serious situation – a situation where NATO has to defend itself with force against Russia.

– That is why it is so important to ensure that Ukraine wins – and that Russia’s aggression fails. This is a war that concerns us in the West to a great extent. It is not something we can “opt out”.

Also read: Putin’s powerful adviser thunders against NATO: – A source of danger

Also read: General: – Two things can bring Putin to the negotiating table

Also read: Not inconceivable with NATO forces in Ukraine, says Poland’s foreign minister

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Facts about NATO’s Article 5

• The defense alliance NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) is built on the basis of the Atlantic Pact from 1949.
• Article 5 of the pact states that an armed attack against one or more of the member states of Europe or North America is an attack against all. If such an attack takes place, the individual Member State will decide for itself the means by which the attack is to be responded to.
• The article has been made applicable once, in connection with the terrorist attack against the USA on 11 September 2001.

(Source: NTB)

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