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In short
- An airstrike in Damascus, believed to be from Israel, killed a senior Iranian defense official and several diplomats.
- Iran promises answers, but Middle East researcher Dag Henrik Tuastad does not think this will lead to war.
- He believes that it is likely that Israel is behind the attack, and that it can be seen as part of their strategy of deterrence and the use of excessive military force.
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The airstrike, believed to have been sent from Israel, targeted a wealthy neighborhood in the Syrian capital Damascus, hitting Iran’s consulate and the ambassador’s residence, according to Reuters.
A senior figure in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, was killed in the attack, state Iranian TV reports, which further reports that the attack was targeted to kill him.
– Top Iranian leader killed
Shortly after the attack, Iran’s ambassador to Syria, Hossein Akbari, came out and said that Iran’s response to the attack will be harsh, reports Reuters.
According to the ambassador, who is himself unharmed, at least five people were killed in the attack. Diplomats are also said to be among the dead.
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– Fairly high-ranking
Middle East expert and researcher at the University of Oslo (UiO), Dag Henrik Tuastad, tells Dagbladet that it is “very likely” that Israel is behind the attack.
– Israel’s way of thinking is deterrence and the use of excessive military force. It is the tool they have in their toolbox. Israel constantly attacks what it can of Hezbollah, Hamas, Jihad leaders and Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Syria and Lebanon, says Tuastad.
Among other things, many attacks have been carried out targeting Iranian leaders in and around Damascus and Aleppo in Syria.
– The difference this time is that the man who is reported killed is reasonably high-ranking. But it will probably take more before this is escalated dangerously much, says Tuastad.
Bloody dragged out of the forest
– Very likely
Israel has not yet commented on the attack accusations.
– It is only exceptionally that Israel confirms attacks in Lebanon and Syria, but it is very likely that they are behind them, says Tuastad.
PROSPEROUS AREA: Smoke rises from the ruins of what is supposed to be the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria. Photo: Firas Makdesi / Reuters / NTB
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In recent years, Israel has carried out several hundred attacks against pro-Iranian militias fighting on the side of President Bashar al-Assad in the 13-year civil war in Syria.
However, Monday’s attack was for the first time aimed at the Iranian embassy area in the capital, according to Reuters.
– Like a horror movie
– Terror balance
– Israel’s red line is to attack Iran directly. But until that happens, I think this is still at a “terror balance” level.
Terror balance is an expression that neither party has an interest in going to direct confrontation with the other.
– Iran is obliged to respond, but they do not respond with war. They are basically not interested in that. They can play with fire, but previous retaliations have also been relatively limited.
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– This puts Iran in a difficult situation, but I think it is unlikely that this will lead to Iran crossing the “point of no return”, says Tuastad.
Israel’s attacks have been stepped up since the war between Israel and Hamas broke out on 7 October last year.
Last Friday, Israel attacked a rocket warehouse belonging to Hezbollah near Aleppo. According to the exile group SOHR, 53 people were killed. According to Reuters, the attack was the deadliest in months.
