An SSB survey after the local elections last autumn received a lot of attention:
• Among men under 25, the Labor Party had a support of 7 per cent. The entire left side together received a poor 22 percent of the votes from this group of voters.
• Almost 6 out of 10 men under the age of 25 voted for the Conservative Party or the Progressive Party.
The alarm went off, not least among the youngest members of the Labor Party: “The low turnout among young people cannot only have consequences for the next election. It can spoil the entire future of social democracy,” said AUF leader Astrid Hoem.
Dagsavisen/FriFagbevegelse wanted to know more about this, and asked Opinion to investigate what voters between the ages of 18 and 29 have answered in our monthly party polls in the last six months since the election. The figures differ somewhat from the Statistics Norway figures, although the main trend with a clear predominance of blue remains the same. But for the Labor Party, the figures are not as alarming as last time – in the figures from Opinion, 15 per cent answered that they would vote Ap, compared to only 7 per cent in the Norwegian Social Statistics survey from the local elections.
War and expensive times have meant that all forms of security have become more important again
After the Statistics Norway poll, there was a lot of talk that it was young men who failed the left. In the figures from Opinion, there is much less difference between women and men, but there is also a clear preponderance among young women who would vote for the Conservative Party and the FRP.
The measurement also shows some other interesting findings:
• SV and MDG score well among the youngest women (18-24 years).
• Among the youngest men (18-24 years), the FRP is the largest party.
• The Red Party is virtually extinct among voters under the age of 25.
• The Conservative Party and FRP would have gained a majority alone in the Storting if the figures had turned out as the Opinion figures show.
That young people are on a blue wave is not something peculiar to Norway. Several polls, elections and reports point to the same tendency in the Nordic region and in large parts of the western world: In our neighboring country, the Sweden Democrats, a party with Nazi roots, are about as big as the two governing parties, the Moderates and the Social Democrats, among young voters.
In Denmark, the Liberal Alliance party and its leader Alex Vanopglagh (32) are clearly the biggest among young people. During the school election a little while ago, the party received 30.5 percent of the vote. The young party leader has lifted the party from the threshold to become the largest on the bourgeois side with exhortations to the majority of Danes to take personal responsibility for their own lives, according to DN.
Further south in Europe, parties even further to the right are successful among the youngest. Gert Wilders in the Netherlands, Marine Le Pen in France and the Alternative für Deutschland party in Germany are all examples of extreme parties that have particularly high support among young men.
Britain is the exception, where the Conservative ruling party appeals poorly to the youngest, while Labor does well. And in the US, no flow of young voters to the Republican Party has been registered either.
Also read: Organized labor disappeared like Jimmy Hoffa in the 1970swrites Lars West Johnsen
The explanations for the blue wave of youth vary somewhat, but most point to the fact that there has been a shift in the issues that 20-year-olds are concerned with. War and expensive times have meant that all forms of safety have become more important again, while climate and the environment have become less important. Many young people are also concerned with freedom of expression, and then in some cases as a reaction to what goes under the collective term “woke” – usually summarized as a critical vigilance and resistance to particular racism and discrimination.
Civita advisor Skjalg Stokke Haugen refers to Opinion’s Young survey to substantiate how important freedom of expression is: “Among young men it is the most important issue in this survey, and among young people in general it is the third most important issue”, he writes in the note ” The blue youth wave”. Aftenposten’s survey in the run-up to the election last autumn showed that the environment and climate had become less important, and that the economy and working life were the most important issues for voters under 30. This was not among the three most important issues for voters over 50, writes Stokke Haugen.
Social media in general and TikTok in particular have also been a widely used explanation for why young people sympathize with blue-collar politicians. Where the older generation obtains information from traditional media and TV debates, younger voters consume politics through short, simple and tabloid posts in social media.
Young, charismatic right-wing politicians in many countries have built themselves up through extensive use of social media. In this country, many people point to FpU leader Simen Velle as the political TikTok winner. After the red-green election defeat last autumn, increased use of social media was one of the measures highlighted by, among others, AUF leader Astrid Hoem.
But parallel to a wave of blue mood in politics, there are also bright spots for the labor movement. LO passed 1 million members last year. A good part of that growth has come among the younger part of working life. Never have the LO confederations had so many student members and never have they had more members under the age of 30. The number of student members and young members increased by around 5 per cent last year, and in fact there were over 10,000 more members under the age of 30 in a LO confederation at the end of 2023 than a year earlier.
Also read: LO is a vigorous jubilant, but there are some signs of illness that should be taken seriouslywrites Kjell Werner
YS’ working life barometer from autumn 2023 also shows a positive tendency when measuring whether people are positive or negative about trade union membership. The group under 30 is most positive. A full 89 per cent answer that they are positive about organising. The corresponding figure for those in the 45–59 age group is 79 per cent, and only 72 per cent for those over 60.
The positive figures for trade unions support the theory that young voters seek security. Young people are often concerned with “what’s in it for me”. It may seem that many students and young workers have realized that it pays to be unionised. But in politics, it is the blue parties that currently respond best to the wishes and needs of young people.
Even if they vote blue, it does not necessarily mean that they want more individualism and less community. It is still possible for the parties with origins in the labor movement to bring the youth back. If one is to make it before the election next year, it is urgent to acquire more knowledge, develop policy and communicate it to the youngest voters in a form and packaging that hits home.
Also read: Young men choose blue. Now the women are following suit
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