The long-term forecast from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute extends 21 days ahead and now provides a preliminary forecast for the weather around Norway on National Day. The temperature in some selected cities is expected to range from 8 to 19 plus degrees, but a 2-24 degree range is also possible in the same cities.
So far, the forecasts show temperatures that are completely within normal for the time of year.
For the capital, the forecast suggests a maximum temperature of 19 degrees and a minimum of 7 (expected temperature range). If we include the entire statistical possibility, the forecast assumes 24 plus degrees and a minimum temperature of 5 degrees (possible).
Here is a preliminary overview of some selected cities:
From 8 to 19 plus degrees
- Oslo: Up to 19 plus degrees, minimum temperature 5 and less than 50 percent probability of precipitation (36 percent)
- Kristiansand: Up to 18 degrees, minimum 9, less than 50 percent probability of precipitation (28 percent)
- Stavanger: Up to 16 degrees, minimum 8, less than 50 percent chance of precipitation (32 percent)
- Bergen: Up to 17 degrees, minimum 8, less than 50 percent probability of precipitation (33 percent)
- Trondheim: Up to 15 degrees, minimum 6 and 47 percent probability of precipitation
- Bodø: Up to 11 degrees, minimum 5 and 50 percent probability of precipitation
- Tromsø: Up to 8 degrees, minimum 2 degrees and 48 percent probability of precipitation
– Great uncertainty
– There is great uncertainty associated with the last period of the 21-day forecast, says meteorologist Karen Jarstø Ervik at Værvarslinga in Tromsø to Nettavisen on Friday morning.
– Those who are concerned with the weather on 17 May simply have to follow the 21-day forecast every day and see how the forecasts develop, she says.
This long-term forecast is based on data from a number of sources, including historical data, and indicates the probability of 100 different weather scenarios.
Fluctuating temperatures
– Data from the European weather service ECMWF shows that April has been quite normal in terms of temperatures here, while the models for the period 29 to 6 May suggest that it may be quite a bit warmer than normal, then it will be a bit colder again, so there are fluctuations here. As we approach 17 May, temperatures are expected to be normal for the period, says Ervik.
The long-term forecast from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute is based, among other things, on ECMWF data. The map at the top of the case (forecast for 20 May) shows the probability that the temperature will deviate from normal. Red means warmer, blue colder, while white means no deviation from normal.
The 21-day notice can currently be found on the website yr.no, but not yet in the Yr app.
Check your local weather forecast at yr.no.
Use the search function on yr.no to find your location and click on 21-day forecast to see the full forecast. You can also see the long-term forecast for some selected cities in the fact box.
The Norwegian Meteorological Institute updates its 21-day forecast every day. You can check the long-term forecast where you live on yr.no here.
Approaching 20 degrees
Summer is on its way, and Europe is warming up, but at the same time it is still cold here in the north, note the meteorologists at Blindern in Oslo.
– High pressure and low pressure determine the air we get. Earlier in the week, there was snow all the way down to Poland. Next week we expect the first day of the year with 20 degrees in Norway, the Meteorological Institute reported on Thursday.
Incidentally, Norwegian climate scientists at Blindern have changed the date for when 20 plus degrees are expected to occur here in Norway on their models. In the previous normal period (1961-1990) the date was 5 May. In the new normal period (1991-2020) the date is 25 April. A warmer climate is the reason why the model has been changed.
Retrieves weather data from England
The summary of the 21-day forecast shows, among other things, the expected rainfall in millimetres, the probability of a little and a lot of rainfall per day, the highest and lowest temperature and the probability of frost.
The 21-day forecast is divided into three rolling seven-day blocks.
After the first 10 days and up to 21 days in the forecast, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute bases its forecasts on data sets for weekly values and daily values from ECMWF, a European meteorological center with headquarters in Reading, England.
Weekend weather: – Quite promising
Right now, Friday 26 April, high pressure is affecting the weather situation in the country.
– There is mostly little rainfall. It is plus degrees in the lowlands, slightly minus in the altitude and some clouds over the interior. The coastal areas look better than the inland areas. We have wind coming from the east, but all in all it looks quite promising for this weekend, says Ervik, who adds that the temperature is expected to be slightly lower throughout Saturday.
