Since what would become known as NATO in 1949, 32 have joined the alliance. During the past year, both Finland and Sweden have become part of the defense alliance which, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is more relevant than in a long time.
NATO is the world’s strongest gathering of defense forces. Nevertheless, the alliance has its vulnerabilities.
– Small overall effect out of the total
Tormod Heier is professor of military strategy and operations at the Norwegian Armed Forces Staff School. He has 32 years behind him as an officer in the Armed Forces. Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB
– NATO’s biggest vulnerability is the cohesion between the 32 members, partly across the Atlantic in the relationship between the US and Europe, and partly within Europe between different members, says Professor Tormod Heier at the Norwegian Defense Academy to ABC Nyheter.
He says that the vulnerability sometimes comes to the surface through irritations and uncertainty, which can sometimes lead to internal cooperation problems.
– An example of this is American irritation that the Europeans do not pay more for their own security, since the US has to pay over 70 percent of the bills in NATO, continues Heier.
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Defense and security researcher Karsten Friis at the Norwegian Institute of Foreign Policy considers insufficient integration of European countries’ defenses to be the biggest weakness.
– This means that in practice we have 30-40 national defences, with corresponding staffs, schools and structures. Thus, you get little overall effect out of the total. Even though Europe spends relatively much on defense compared to many other regions in the world, you don’t get that much out of it, says Friis.
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Watch video: Hit Russian command center
Will offer hundreds of thousands: – Far from realistic today
Karsten Friis is a senior researcher and head of the security and defense research group. Photo: Christopher Olssøn (NUPI)
As a result of agreements reached during the NATO summit in Madrid in the summer of 2022, NATO is in a so-called force generation process. The plan is to multiply the alliance’s reaction force.
– Here the plan is to be able to field 100,000 soldiers at ten days’ notice and 200,000 at 30 days. This is far from realistic today, says Friis and points out that the European countries have not integrated their defenses to a sufficient extent.
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He is clear that NATO should be more integrated by the member states purchasing several similar systems, that requirements be set for NATO’s standards to be maintained so that different equipment can be used together, and that more joint forces be formed.
– This does not mean giving up national control of their use, but that they have a common headquarters, practice and operate constantly as a unit.
The American Joker
The USA is by far the largest contributor to NATO, and is one of two member states located outside Europe. The rest of the alliance relies on several of the superpower’s military capabilities
The experts are clear that the European countries’ dependence on the USA is critical.
– There is only one country in the whole world that can give the European NATO countries credible security guarantees in the meeting with the world’s largest country, Russia. And that is the USA, says Professor Tormod Heier.
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The United States alone accounts for around 40 percent of the world’s total military expenditure. The professor states that the US has the best expertise in intelligence, logistics and command and control.
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Friis says that NATO is dependent on the US for systems that are needed to be able to operate on a large scale over time.
– Refilling aviation fuel in the air is an example of this. If the US were to be occupied elsewhere on the globe, Europe could therefore struggle alone, says the Nato expert.
Elections in the United States
In November, there are presidential elections in the United States, and once again Donald Trump is in the race for the chief seat in the Oval Office. In February, he made headlines when he suggested during an election rally that he would not necessarily have protected a NATO member state if there was an attack and he was president.
– No, I didn’t want to protect you. On the contrary, I would rather encourage Russia to do whatever the hell they want. You’re going to have to pay, Trump claims he told a president of a major, unnamed NATO country.
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The statement met with massive criticism from several quarters. NATO chief Jens Stolenberg said in the wake of the statement that he did not think Trump was serious.
Finnish marine infantrymen during the Nordic Response 2024 exercise. Finland became a NATO member in April 2023. Photo: Jonathan Nackstrand / AFP / NTB
– Seen from Russian eyes, this would be very nice
It is not only military forces that play roles in the NATO play. Tormod Heier says that NATO today bases its combat power on a stable and well-functioning civil society where bodies such as municipalities and commercial companies contribute.
Thus, the interaction with civil society in the municipalities is counted as a critical vulnerability for the alliance.
– If civil society is destabilized and partially put out of action, then it will not take many days before the soldiers are also put out of action. Seen from Russian eyes, this would be very nice because then they would not have to face the West where they are strongest. It is much better to go after the vulnerabilities, says Heier.
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– And since the Russians are militarily inferior, it is much better to carry out covert and coordinated operations against the parts of NATO that are weakest, namely the municipalities and the commercial players on which NATO’s operational capability is based, he continues.
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Nato: Addressing shortcomings
ABC Nyheter has asked Nato what the alliance itself considers to be its biggest weaknesses.
The answer is vague:
“Regarding current shortfalls, NATO leadership has been clear about the need to continue to increase munitions production – particularly to be able to continue supporting Ukraine, as well as the need for more air and missile defense, long-range systems and improved logistics and activation. The alliance addresses the shortcomings through our well-established defense planning process,” Nato writes in an email to ABC Nyheter.
