The proportion of involuntarily childless men is not surprisingly high or strongly increasing

Much of the difference in childlessness between women and men is simply due to purely demographic factors.

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In recent weeks there has been much discussion about why many men do not find a partner, and what can be done by themselves or at a societal level to change the situation. It is important that such questions are addressed. Because having a partner is high on most people’s wish lists, and a large proportion of single people can also have social consequences.

However, the discussion can become even more valuable if it is based on a reasonable description of the family pattern in Norway – including men’s childlessness, which has also been a topic.

Higher proportion among men

The vast majority of women and men have lived in a short- or long-term cohabitation relationship by the time they are 40 years old. The population register does not contain as good information about cohabitation as marriage, but we know from interview surveys that only 5 percent of those born in the 1960s had not lived in some form of cohabitation by the time they turned 40.

Judging from the pattern for slightly older birth cohorts and the changes over time, there were probably only a couple of percentage points more men than women who had no cohabitation experience. The figures may perhaps be higher, and the difference between the sexes greater, for those who have turned 40 in recent years (born in the early 1980s).

Economic insecurity, gender differences in education, perceptions of what is important in life, and the use of “dating apps” are some of the factors that have an impact on development. Fairly recent interview surveys will soon be able to shed light on this.

The proportion without cohabitation is of course higher at, for example, age 25 than 40, and especially among men, since they are on average a couple of years older than their partners. The discussion has particularly focused on these young men. It is not difficult to understand that there can be great frustration among young men who do not have a partner, but it is likely that many of them will enter into cohabitation within ten years.

An even larger proportion will then be in, or have been in, a relationship if we also count boyfriends they have not lived with.

Not dramatic

There are more statistics on childlessness. Among other things, data from the National Register of Citizens show that more than 1 in 4 men aged 45 are childless. This figure is constantly discussed in the media. However, the proportion is lower if we do not include immigrants. In some immigrant groups, there are many childless men. Many of them probably have children in their home country who are not registered in Norway. Among those born in Norway who were approximately 45 years old in 2018 (born 1971-73), 19 percent of the men and 11 percent of the women were childless.

It is reasonable to count at the age of 45 for both sexes, because the figures for older birth cohorts suggest that childlessness among men will only decrease from 19 per cent to 18 per cent from 45 to 55 years of age.

The situation was not dramatically different if we go back 15 years. Then there was the same childlessness for 45-year-old women, while there were 17 per cent childless 45-year-old men. In other words, the difference in childlessness between the sexes increased by 2 percentage points, or from 5.8 to 8.2 percentage points to be more precise. This is described in a research article.

Due to demographic conditions

Much of the difference in childlessness between women and men – and the rather modest increase in this difference over time – is simply due to purely demographic factors. Firstly, approximately 5 per cent more boys than girls are born. This excess of boys, which is found in most societies, contributes a lot to a greater proportion of childless men than women. Also, as I said, it is common for a man to have a slightly younger partner.

Seen from a male perspective – and to simplify a bit – a 25-year-old must therefore search among women who are 23, and if the annual number of births fell a quarter of a century earlier, this two-year-old birth cohort is smaller. This means that there will not be a 5 per cent surplus of men in relation to the women in question, but perhaps 7 per cent.

This last addition is relevant for those who turned 45 in 2018, due to a sharp drop in fertility in the period 1965-1985, while it is not relevant for those who turned 45 15 years earlier.

To summarize, the surplus of newborn boys contributes to a generally higher rate of childlessness among men, while for men who are about 50 years old today (and not those who are 15 years older), it has been an additional effect of the declining fertility at the time they themselves was born. This additional effect is the main reason for the moderately increasing difference in childlessness between women and men.

No good description

In principle, an excess of men can be counteracted by the fact that many childless men have their first child with a woman who already has children – or rather, by the fact that there is more such “recycling” of women than the opposite “recycling” of men. In Norway, however, these two opposing mechanisms have balanced each other quite well.

One might imagine that the growing difference in childlessness between the sexes in recent years is due to more “recycling” of men (compared to the “recycling” of women), but the development has actually gone slightly in the opposite direction. In other words, the fact that “some men get all the women” (that is, widespread “recycling” of men) – which has been mentioned in the ongoing debate – is not a good description of the pattern of childlessness so far.

Unnecessarily negative

Of course, we cannot know what life will be like for those who are in their 20s today. Perhaps fewer will enter into cohabitation in the coming years than has been common in the past, or more will remain childless. It is also possible that the gender differences in the proportion of single or childless people will increase.

However, the discussion can become unnecessarily negative if one is not aware that an overwhelming majority of those who are approximately 20 years older had cohabitation experience when they turned 40 – also among men – and that the proportion of childless men is neither surprisingly high nor strongly increasing.

The level and development fit quite well with what can be expected based on the surplus of boys at birth and the changes in the population’s age structure. There have been no dramatic changes in behavior and society behind it.