– Two factors are now decisive – Dagsavisen

Fresh military aid has come into place after the Congress in the United States decided at the end of April to give around 61 billion dollars in aid to Ukraine.

– The support package from the USA is extremely important for Ukraine, also together with the EU support package. Ukraine has an urgent need for increased air defense capacity and associated ammunition, as well as other weapons and ammunition. The USA package will remedy this need, Tobias Sæther tells Dagsavisen.

He is a Ukraine researcher at the Staff School of the Norwegian Armed Forces College.

At the beginning of February, the EU countries adopted an aid package for Ukraine worth 50 billion euros, consisting of 17 billion euros in aid and 33 billion euros in loans over four years. In March, the EU countries also agreed to grant a military aid package of 5 billion euros to the Ukrainians.

Putin’s capacity

But these packages have their shortcomings, says Sæther.

– The challenge, which NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has also addressed, is that support packages like this do little for the more long-term the challenges for Ukraine. For the Ukrainians cannot match Russia’s industrial capacity alone over time, the researcher points out.

Thus, the Ukrainians need far more comprehensive support, and a more concrete and credible plan for how to support the country against Putin and Russia, in both the long and medium term, Sæther believes.

– Only stable frameworks that extend over time will be able to give the Ukrainians the opportunity to match Russian capacities, he says.

Also read: Warns about Putin’s war economy: – It is unhealthy

Many who have followed the war for a long time believe that to a greater extent one must think new and more long-term, says the Ukraine expert.

– Myself included. I would go so far as to say it is imperative. Not only to ensure the survival of the Ukrainian state, but also to ensure that peace is restored in Europe in the longer term.

Jens Stoltenberg’s plan

NATO’s Secretary General has himself explained to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyj what the plan is until the NATO summit in July: To ensure precisely long-term and predictable support for the country at a level far higher than today, writes Dagens Næringsliv.

– What does Ukraine need that they still don’t get?

– First of all, it is volume. As the generals say: quantity has a quality in itself. Ukraine has artillery, but too little. The same with ammunition and anti-aircraft. Too little volume, depth and quantity, Jens Stoltenberg replies to the newspaper.

So what should be done going forward? For example, on the part of the NATO countries, one can think long-term to an even greater extent about the training of Ukrainian forces. You can give more financial support and more weapons support, explains Ukrainian researcher Sæther to Dagsavisen.

– And, not least: Norway could join forces with other countries that support Ukraine and have significant defense industries – such as Germany and Great Britain – and increase the pace and scope of production of ammunition and weapon systems on Ukrainian soil, he believes.

– Recently, we have heard signs from, among others, French President Emmanuel Macron and Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide that this is something Europe is thinking more about now. These are important signals. And it is important that momentum is built around this now, adds Sæther.

Also read: Professors: – Europe, not NATO, must send forces to Ukraine

An imbalance in Russia’s favor

The researcher also refers to Jens Stoltenberg’s desire for a long-term fund of 100 billion euros for Ukraine. At the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting recently, the member states gave the thumbs up to go ahead and prepare a concrete plan that can be adopted at the summit in Washington in July, the secretary general stated at a press conference.

The plans imply that the alliance will have a greater role in the coordination of support for Ukraine.

– We must make the support less dependent on voluntary, short-term contributions and focus more on long-term commitments, Stoltenberg said then.

The creation of such a fund will mean that NATO member countries will have to spit more into the coffers. For Norway, it could be up to NOK 20 billion, according to NTB.

At the same time, a long-term fund implies a clear warning to the Kremlin.

– Moscow must understand that they cannot achieve their goals on the battlefield. And they cannot wait for us to give up, Stoltenberg has stated.

Lack of access to artillery ammunition and other equipment, which Stoltenberg highlights, has been the most important reason why Ukraine has ended up on the defensive against Putin and Russia in recent months, believes Ukraine researcher Sæther.

– Ukraine has largely managed to hold its own, but gradually the reality has become obvious – there is an ever-increasing imbalance in military capacity – in favor of Russia. So I would say the situation for the Ukrainians is more critical now than at any other time since spring 2022, says Sæther.

Also read: Threatened by Putin’s “railway”: – A serious problem

The way forward for Ukraine in the war

The researcher thinks the following about what will happen next in the war now, in what has been described as a fateful year for the Ukrainians:

– There are two important factors that will determine which opportunity space opens up (for Ukraine) in the long term. It is, firstly, about Western support, and whether it is possible to get more long-term support schemes for the Ukrainians – with larger sums. It will affect the Ukrainians’ ability to fight, but also the signals they send to Russia and Vladimir Putin. It is also something that Stoltenberg has been thinking about lately: that what is spent on Ukraine also affects Russia’s calculations.

– The second factor is what happens inside Ukrainian territory. Then I think of the politically and humanly difficult issue of mobilizing Ukrainian personnel. Can arrangements be put in place that balance the need to take care of future generations, so that Ukraine has people of working age who can take care of the economy when the war is over, but at the same time solve the crying need for more Ukrainian soldiers? he asks himself.

If you manage to get these two factors in place, Sæther believes that in the medium to long term there are opportunities to take back the initiative on the battlefield in the longer term.

– And only then can we know whether it is realistic for Ukraine to be able to liberate larger areas. Much of this is about support, and how quickly it comes into place. Only then can we look at possible counter-offensives from Ukraine in the future. But as of now, it’s about securing the territories you have, and preventing Russia from being able to occupy large parts of Ukraine, with the consequences it will have, says the Ukraine researcher.

Dagsavisen recently spoke with senior analyst Samuel Charap at the American think tank Rand. He shared his views on the outcome of the war in Ukraine, and pointed to a possible ceasefire à la the one seen on the Korean Peninsula:

– Although Ukraine is struggling in the war now, the most likely outcome is still a situation where neither party achieves an absolute victory. Neither Russia nor Ukraine have achieved their territorial goals, and both sides have the ability to pose a threat to the other once the fighting ceases.

Also read: General on Putin’s war: – Russia lacks what it takes

Also read: She gives Russia a clear message: – We do not accept it

Also read: Ukrainian men die fleeing Putin’s war: – Sad and tragic

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Facts about the war in Ukraine

• Russia and President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine with large forces on February 24, 2022.
• Russian forces and Russian-backed separatists previously controlled the Crimean peninsula and parts of the Ukrainian counties of Donetsk and Luhansk.
• Since the invasion, Russian forces have taken control of even more areas in eastern and southern Ukraine. The Russian-occupied areas now make up around 18 percent of the country.
• The fronts in the war have largely been deadlocked since autumn 2022.
• Ukraine’s and President Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s stated goal is to recapture all Russian-occupied territories, including the Crimean peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014.
• Western countries support Ukraine with large amounts of weapons and military equipment.
• Neither Ukraine nor Russia state how many soldiers they lose on the battlefield. It is estimated that up to 500,000 soldiers have been killed and wounded in the war, and the majority of these are said to be Russian.
• The UN has registered over 10,000 civilians killed in Ukraine, but the real figure is probably much higher.
• 6.5 million Ukrainians have fled the country since the invasion, and another 3.7 million are internally displaced.

(Sources: UN, The New York Times, NTB)

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