Chechnya has been through two bloody civil wars since the fall of the Soviet Union. The last one was not properly ended until 2009, by which time the Russian army had been deployed in Chechnya since 1999.
Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov took power after his father, Akhmad Kadyrov, was assassinated in 2004. The Kadyrov family has been loyal to Vladimir Putin and the current regime in the Kremlin, in exchange for huge financial aid from Moscow.
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There have long been rumors that all is not as it should be with Ramzan Kadyrov’s health. In recent weeks, these rumors have gained momentum.
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Fatal diagnosis
The Russian regime-critical newspaper Novaya Gazeta claims that Kadyrov suffers from necrotizing pancreatitis, a disease which, according to SNL, leads to tissue death in the pancreas and surrounding tissue. Mortality may be high, and Novaya Gazeta claims that the Kremlin has now begun preparations to find Kadyrov’s successor.
Finding Kadyrov’s successor could become a real headache for the Kremlin. Kadyrov has three children, a daughter aged 25 and two sons aged 16 and 18. To be president in Chechnya, according to the constitution, one must be at least 30 years old.
– There could be a violent struggle for power after Kadyrov. The Kremlin seems to be trying to build up the Chechen general Apti Alaudinov, says Tor Bukkvoll to Nettavisen.
Bukkvoll is chief researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute and an expert on Russian defense and security policy.
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Pulls out general
General Alaudinov has risen rapidly through the ranks recently, and Bukkvoll believes this may be an attempt by Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin to be ahead of the curve should Kadyrov die, or no longer be able to rule in Chechnya.
– As long as the Kadyrov clan has as much power as they have now, it is difficult to start a rebellion in Chechnya. Nevertheless, the entire Russian army is busy in Ukraine, so for the forces that want independence, Kadyrov’s death will be a good time to resume the fight, believes Bukkvoll.
He nevertheless believes that a new Chechen struggle for independence is relatively unlikely, and rather believes that a possible conflict could unfold among armed groups that currently support Kadyrov.
If Kadyrov steps down, there may be several different groups who believe that it is actually their group that will take over power.
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Could be a bloody fight
One of the world’s foremost Russia experts, Mark Galoetti, believes that a possible power struggle over who will take over from Kadyrov will probably turn violent.
– To quote a Russian politician: There are too many men in Chechnya with guns who hold grudges to assume that things will not get bloody, Galoetti recently wrote in The Times.
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Bukkvoll says a power struggle in Chechnya will be a real headache for Vladimir Putin.
– They do not have the resources to send the army to Chechnya as they have done before. They have their domestic forces, which are well equipped, but they are not trained for regular warfare, says Bukkvoll.
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Vladimir Putin got off to a flying start as president of Russia during the second war against Chechnya that began in 2009, gaining such legitimacy as a strong leader who could unite the country.
– It can be extra disgusting for Putin, because he is seen within the Russian power apparatus as the man who ensured that Russia did not fall apart in the same way as the Soviet Union. There is a lot at stake for Vladimir Putin, believes Bukkvoll.
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