The short version
- Israel could win the Eurovision final on Saturday because of sympathy votes, according to experts
- Sympathy voting seems to imply a political mobilization for Israel
- If Israel wins: – It will not be possible to organize Eurovision in Israel.
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Before the semi-final on Thursday, Israel’s entry was in eighth place on the betting lists of who will win Eurovision this year.
After Thursday’s broadcast bounced Eden Golan up to second place, according to the website Eurovision World.
Today, a number of Norwegian and international media, including metro.com.uk, are reporting that Italy’s public broadcaster Rai mistakenly published the numbers and votes the Italians gave for the various contributions. There you could see that Israel’s participant had collected a whopping 39.31 percent of the votes from Italian viewers.
– If this is true, we are probably headed for the most controversial victory of all time. There is no reason to believe that this voting pattern will be particularly much different in the rest of Europe, says Nils Petter Strømmen, media scientist, senior adviser at Kantar Media to VG.
Rai was able to say on Friday afternoon that the figures were published by mistake, and did not match. They have apologized for the incident.
“Sympathy voting”
Strømmen believes there has been a mobilization to vote for Israel.
– It seems that friends of Israel will use Eurovision to show sympathy for Israel. Three days ago I thought it would be the opposite, says Strømmen.
The big question the day before the Eurovision final in Malmö is not which entry is the best, but to what extent the political conflict between Israel and Hamas will affect people’s voting.
– My guess is that we will see elements of “sympathy voting”, says reputation expert Kjell Terje Ringdal.
He says that this shows that Eurovision is also about political likes and dislikes.
– Now we may want to get serious confirmation that music and politics are connected, he says.
– Full of politics
Journalist, presenter and former Eurovision commentator, Jostein Pedersen, believes Eurovision is “full of politics”.
– Eurovision must be very careful and on guard with what they want to convey. They have to tell it like it is: it’s mostly about music, but politics is a big part of it too.
– It has always been that way too. It comes out in the form of both songs and performances.
Eurovision expert
He believes that if Israel wins, it is unlikely that many other countries will go there.
– If Israel wins and organizes Eurovision, I don’t think it will be the same folk festival as we have seen before. Israel is a completely different country to all others and in addition to the political backdrop here, it will be something completely different, says Pedersen.
– A difficult situation
Entertainment editor at NRK, Charlo Halvorsen, has himself thought about what significance it would have if Israel won this weekend’s Eurovision final.
– I have no good answer other than that it would be interesting to be a fly on the wall in the EBU after a possible Israel victory.
– Why?
– It is a difficult situation. Britain took over for Ukraine after their victory in the invasion there, and as it stands today it will not be possible to host Eurovision in Israel.
– If the situation is the same in a year’s time, some participating countries may react. It can be problematic, says Halvorsen.
Entertainment editor at NRK
He points out that if Israel runs away with the victory, there are obviously many people who will be very happy.
– There are probably many votes of sympathy behind them if they win. In that case, it shows a wave of sympathy for Israel and the situation down there, and the relationship with Israel is very different elsewhere in Europe compared to the Nordic countries.
When asked what happens to NRK’s coverage in the event of an Israeli victory, Halvorsen replies:
– Let’s see what happens on Saturday. For now, the plan is for Gåte to win and we will host in Norway.
– Undoubtedly influenced the voting
In February 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine. While Russia was excluded from Eurovision 2022, Ukraine received an outpouring of sympathy and support and became the heavy favorite to win.
VG’s reviewer Tor Martin Bøe also gave the Ukrainian contribution a five on the dice.
From the stage came the Kalush Orchestra with a prayer:
– Please help Ukraine, Mariupol. The only thing I ask of you is to help Ukraine, Mariupol, said frontman Oleh Psiuk after the performance.
This appeal could be disqualifying, but the EBU believed the support was humanitarian rather than political in nature.
Ukraine later won the competition thanks to a record-breaking score from the TV viewers.
Ukraine also won in 2016, the year after they had to withdraw as a result of Russia’s intervention and annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014.
– What can be read from those polls?
– It’s a good parallel. But there is a difference between a polarized conflict and a wave of sympathy. There were massive waves of sympathy for Ukraine and they undoubtedly influenced the voting, says election researcher Svein Erik Tuastad, associate professor of political science to VG.
– To what extent will people vote for Israel because of the war with Hamas?
– People who watch Eurovision probably care most about the music. Those who demonstrate and those who are most concerned about Eurovision are not the same group, he says.
Equally, he believes the conflict will mobilize.
– Those who don’t normally watch Eurovision, but are pro Israel, might want to go in and vote. In that sense, Israel’s contribution can benefit the conflict, says Tuastad.
Correspondingly, many who support Palestine will probably boycott the entire voting, he believes.
– In that case, which ones will vote for Israel for political reasons?
– It will probably be those who are very engaged in the conflict on Israel’s side, typically people who are Christian conservatives, says Tuastad.
