Military aircraft have crashed in the Black Sea

The pilot should have ejected and been picked up by rescue crews, according to the Russian-appointed governor of Sevastopol.

Thursday 28 March at 19:02

Sevastopol is located on the annexed Crimean peninsula.

Videos circulating online and presented as being of the plane in question show it in flames before crashing into the sea,

– The pilot ejected. He was picked up by rescue crews from Sevastopol’s rescue service around 200 meters from shore. His life is not in danger, writes the governor Mikhail Razvozhaev on Telegram.

Norwegian experts from the Norwegian Air Force School disagree about what has happened.

– This is potentially a shooting down of a series of Russian fighter planes that the Ukrainians have succeeded in shooting down in recent months. It could also be something else, given that the video is authentic, says associate professor at the Norwegian Air Force School, Ole Jørgen Maaø, to VG about the incident.

Maaø adds:

– It could very well be a Ukrainian shooting down. Ukraine has had a good deal of success in 2024 with shooting down planes, they obviously want to show the Russians that the Russians cannot use the planes completely without threat over the occupied territories.

How will Ukraine manage to gain momentum?

– The Ukrainians have probably moved some air defense closer to the front to achieve this, and have also taken some losses of air defense material, probably because it becomes more vulnerable when it can be fired upon from several different Russian weapon systems.

Another associate professor at the Norwegian Air Force School, Lars Peder Haga, has some other theories and thoughts about the military plane that crashed:

• It may have been shot down by Russian air defenses. The reason may be poor routines or that the routines have not been followed.
• There may be a technical fault in the engine of the aircraft. The reason is that they are old planes, which have been used harder than originally intended.

– Why don’t you think it is likely that Ukraine is behind it?

– Getting a target on such a small military aircraft is very difficult. There are also long distances, so I don’t consider it very likely that Ukraine is behind.

– Who has the momentum in the dogfight now?

– As I see it, there is quite a standstill. Neither party dares to fly anything in particular with manned aircraft over the other party’s territory. Ukraine has recently attacked inside the Crimean peninsula with cruise missiles, so the Russians are probably quite nervous.

Maaø shares some of the same opinion as Haga:

– In general, however, there is quite a standstill in the battle for control of the airspace. However, in the last couple of weeks the Russians have attacked heavily with missiles and drones, especially again against the Ukrainian power supply and have had some success with it. However, what they achieve with this is far more uncertain, says Maaø.