On Monday, Israel began military operations with ground forces in Rafah. In recent months, the city has housed over a million internally displaced people as a result of Israeli ground forces moving into other parts of Gaza.
Although attacks have stepped up in recent days, the US reports cautious optimism about a new ceasefire.
– When we see the text, our understanding is that it implies that we should be able to close these gaps, says spokesman John Kirby for the US National Security Council.
Talks on a ceasefire and hostage exchange are continuing in Cairo, but Kirby would not give a timeline for when the US believes the parties might reach an agreement.
Read more about the conflict in Gaza here!
Hilde Henriksen Waage, professor of history at UiO, and senior researcher at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), believes that the expressed optimism is a clear sign that the US wants an end to warfare as quickly as possible.
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– It is devastating for Joe Biden that the US has been trying to talk its ally Israel into this for many months, while Israel is showing the whole world that it couldn’t care less about the advice and orders that come from Washington, says Waage to ABC News.
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– Reason for optimism
Nevertheless, she highlights what could be a turning point in the conflict. This week, several news agencies have reported that the United States has stopped the shipment of bombs to Israel.
– I think that is what gives reason for optimism. It is that Israel realizes that the US is now really serious. That Israel can no longer afford to sleep with the only friend they have left.
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Waage emphasizes that one does not know for sure what is said behind closed doors.
– It can almost seem as if you are also optimistic…
– Yes, because this war will end sometime. But the question is when, and in what way, says Waage to ABC Nyheter.
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Palestinians gather to receive food at a charity kitchen in Rafah. Photo: REUTERS/Hatem Khaled
– Must show something
According to Waage, it is important for the Israeli authorities to show achieved war goals before the conflict can cool down again. These results could come through an invasion of Rafah.
– They have not brought home the hostages. They have not managed to crush Hamas, because it is not possible to eradicate an entire movement. They have not created any greater security for the Israeli people. But Israel must have something to show in order to end this war, Waage believes.
At the same time, Benjamin Netanyahu and the extreme, militant right wing of his government have a significant vested interest in continuing this war.
– Netanyahu’s political life is also at stake. When the war is over, it is absolutely clear to everyone that he will no longer be prime minister of Israel, says Waage.
Thus, Netanyahu could risk prison for the corruption charges that have swirled around him in recent years.
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The sign from a trash can in Tel Aviv testifies to an Israeli population that goes against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Photo: REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
According to Waage, the demonstrations against the prime minister and his strategy regarding the hostages inside Israel reveal why the negotiations are actually stalling. It is about what will happen after the ceasefire.
If Hamas gives up the hostages, they no longer have any bargaining chips.
– This means that Hamas, for sure, and I actually believe that the USA and Qatar also want some guarantees for the further plan after a ceasefire.
