– I don’t think this will be a turning point in the war. The Arab states have great sympathy for the Palestinians, but do not challenge Israel’s military superiority because the country has the United States at its back, says Professor Tormod Heier at the Norwegian Defense College to NTB.
– Iran has also proven to be militarily impotent, and Israel has a lot of room for maneuver in the way they want to handle this war.
Cheers point to Israel succeeding in shooting down the Iranian rockets and drones that were fired at the country in April, after an Israeli attack on Iran’s consulate in Syria.
– It reveals that Iran does not strictly speaking pose an existential threat to Israel, he says.
Blocking refugees
In the morning hours on Tuesday, the Israeli army took control of the border crossing in Rafah, which for periods has been the only way out of the Gaza Strip.
According to Heier, it shows that Israel prioritizes relations with Egypt, and that Netanyahu does not dare to jeopardize the peace agreement with the Egyptians from 1979 in the fight against Hamas.
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– The peace agreement is the cornerstone of Israel’s security, so when Egypt threatens to cancel it if there are large flows of refugees from Rafah into the Sinai Peninsula, Israel takes it seriously, he says.
– The point of taking control of the border is to gain control so that refugees trying to leave Rafah in a panic do not flow into Egyptian territory.
Concerned about the civilian population
Just a few hours after Israel ordered Palestinians to flee eastern Rafah on Monday, the bombs fell. The attacks continued on Tuesday.
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Earlier in the war, Palestinians in northern and central Gaza were told to go to Rafah to seek refuge. It is estimated that 1.1 million Palestinians went there from other places in the Gaza Strip. Now they are again being sent to flee, together with the rest of the inhabitants of Rafah.
The escape route Israel has planned goes to very overpopulated areas along the coast such as Al-Mawasi and to the destroyed city of Khan Younis.
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Secretary General Jan Egeland of the Norwegian Refugee Council refers to Israel’s evacuation order as an illegal deportation of vulnerable people.
– These are areas that are either in ruins or are already completely overpopulated by refugees. There is neither food, water or emergency housing for them, Egeland told NTB on Monday afternoon.
– This is an illegal evacuation order, and the first part of a forced evacuation. A civilian population must be evacuated with assistance, emergency housing and humanitarian services must be provided in the area to which they are evacuated. In addition, you must also get a promise to be able to return, he emphasizes.
Common interests
Professor Tormod Heier at the Norwegian Defense Academy does not believe that Israel’s warfare in Rafah in the south of the Gaza Strip will be a turning point in the war. Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB
Heier is also worried about the civilian population in Rafah.
– Half of Gaza’s population is squeezed together in Rafah on just under 60 square kilometers. It goes without saying that Israel cannot fight Hamas there without causing major civilian casualties, he says.
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– In any case, it will be a traumatic experience for the population, who are all very vulnerable after seven months of intense bombing, he adds.
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The professor believes that both Israel and the Arab states have an interest in maintaining a normalized relationship, even if the cross-pressure at home is great.
It still works to Israel’s advantage, which feels confident that US arms support will continue despite the displeasure of the Biden administration, he believes.
– The fact that the Arab states keep calm and do not react militarily gives Israel greater room for action in being tough with Hamas and turning a blind eye to some of the civilian suffering, he says.
– There is international pressure, but Israel lives well with it when, according to them, the alternative is an existential threat buried in tunnel systems just a few kilometers from its own borders, he says.
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– Coercive diplomacy
Israel launched the offensive in Rafah despite ongoing negotiations on a ceasefire and the release of hostages with Hamas.
Heier is convinced that it is a deliberate negotiation strategy on Israel’s part.
– This is coercive diplomacy. It is being used against Hamas’ political leadership in order to gain traction for Israel’s position, he says.
Middle East expert Marte Heian-Engdal also believes so.
As of Tuesday, the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip has been going on for seven months. Here from the ruins in Rafah after an attack on 22 February this year. Photo: Fatima Shbair / AP / NTB
– There are attempts to influence the situation in the negotiation room with the use of military means. The negotiations and the military go hand in hand, she says to NRK Nyhetsmorgen.
She has written a new book about Gaza, but the everyday life she describes there she fears will not return.
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– I fear that what we are seeing now is not the beginning of the end, but the start of something much bigger because there are so many strong forces at play, she says to the national broadcaster.
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– Meetings with people I’ve had at the same time show an enormous will to get back up and rebuild their lives. There must be room for hope, otherwise we will be very powerless over what is happening in Gaza, but also in other parts of the world.
I don’t think Hamas will disappear
But even if Israel were to succeed in defeating Hamas’s last stronghold in Rafah, Professor Heier does not believe that the movement will disappear or the war will end.
– Hamas will continue to wage war, but it will be about small disorganized groups that carry out needlestick attacks against Israeli forces and kibbutzim, he says.
The professor believes that Hamas will turn to guerrilla warfare.
– There is no military solution to this war and Hamas will not allow itself to be defeated. And when between 4,000 and 8,000 Hamas fighters are hiding among a population of 1.3 million people, it becomes like finding a needle in a haystack.
