The war in Ukraine: – Russia attacks with full force

In recent weeks, the Russian forces have intensified their attacks against Ukraine along the front line.

The Ukrainian soldiers have lacked ammunition to defend themselves, and several experts have pointed out that this could have fatal consequences for the war-ravaged country.

Important support for Ukraine

After months of arguments and deadlock, the House of Representatives in the United States decided to give a support package to Ukraine of 61 billion dollars, but little of this has so far reached Ukraine. In the meantime, the Russian forces are pushing as hard as they can.

– For Russia, it is important to achieve the greatest possible military effect before Ukraine receives more weapons and ammunition. They will also try to target weapons and ammunition deliveries internally in Ukraine, says Tom Røseth, head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense Academy.

The most critical thing for Ukraine is to replenish artillery ammunition, grenades and anti-aircraft ammunition. Some of this is stored in Europe, but some of the equipment must be sent by plane or boat from the USA.

Russia wants results

The Russian forces have reportedly been told by the Kremlin to take over the town of Chasiv Yar before 9 May. It is the day that is marked as “Victory Day” in Russia, the day on which the Russians have celebrated the victory over Hitler’s Germany in all the years after the Second World War with pompous military parades in the streets of Moscow.

The Ministry of Defense in Moscow announced on Sunday that Russian soldiers had completely taken control of the village of Ocheretyne in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine. The village is on the front line and is now almost completely destroyed.

– It was expected that the Russians would go on the offensive. It is wise for them to do so while waiting for Ukraine to deliver more weapons and ammunition. It will take time before the aid package arrives, so there is an opportunity for Russian progress now before the situation can stabilize, says chief researcher Tor Bukkvoll at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI).

At the same time, they continued to attack Kharkiv, and on Sunday a number of fires were reported after a night of Russian rocket and drone attacks, the authorities said.

Putin’s worst nightmare

In mid-March, Russia stepped up its attacks against Kharkiv,

The largest fire broke out in a warehouse area and spread to an area of ​​about 3,000 square meters, according to Ukraine’s state emergency service.

Don’t believe in breakthroughs

Four people were injured in the attacks on Saturday night, including a 13-year-old, according to preliminary information. Regional authorities state that the attacks hit both critical infrastructure, commercial buildings and residential buildings.

– Vadim Skibitskij, who is number two in Ukrainian intelligence, stated that they are building up towards Kupyansk and going in the direction of Kharkiv. They are making small progress, but I don’t think they will be able to break through with any great force, says Tor Bukkvoll.

Ukraine’s air force claims to have shot down all 13 Russian drones fired at the city, while Kharkiv’s mayor says two of them hit the city. Russian soldiers are said to have also fired four rockets at the town, which is located a few miles from the Russian border.

– The Russian attacks have certainly not slowed down, quite the opposite. They are interested in gaining as much ground as possible while they can, and attack several places at the same time, says Tom Røseth to Dagbladet.

He believes that Russia will increase the intensity of the attacks in order to win new areas and try to weaken the motivation of the Ukrainian soldiers.

– Both motivation and ammunition are important factors right now. They will try to show the Ukrainians that nothing is useful, that Russia will win the war in the end anyway. The narrative they are trying to convey is that even if more weapons and ammunition arrive, Vladimir Putin’s men will continue to take new territories, he says.

– Putin is in a hurry

While waiting for Ukraine to supply more weapons and ammunition, Russia has a window of opportunity to go on the offensive.

– It will be closed when weapons and ammunition arrive, but until that happens the Ukrainians are influenced in terms of motivation. They have to fight with very little ammunition, and when you do this over time, it will probably affect the soldiers’ motivation. Having said that, the morale of the Ukrainians has been very good up until now, he says.

– They are a bit on their heels

Several military experts Dagbladet spoke to believed that Ukraine could use more ammunition after the support package from the USA went through.

So far that has not happened.

– It does not appear that Ukraine uses much more ammunition now than before. In addition, we see that they have little protection against ballistic missiles, which we have clearly seen in Odesa and other cities. They are a bit on their heels, and it will take some time to stabilize the situation. They also don’t know how much ammunition they will get or when it will arrive, says Røseth.

Some of the ammunition promised to Ukraine is stored in Europe, while much has to be shipped from the United States.

– It must be loaded on a plane or sent refrigerated. In addition, we have the Czech initiative, but here too it is somewhat unclear when and what will come, he says.

What will Russia do?

The question is how long Russia can carry out the offensive before Ukraine can once again fight the enemy back.

– Ammunition is coming that can stabilize the front line in the period ahead, but it is still difficult to put down the foot to stop an advance. Whether they get enough to stop the attacks on Tsjasiv Jar is difficult to say, we don’t know exactly what the situation will be like there in three weeks and how big the costs the Russians are willing to take to secure the city, says Røseth.

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He believes the Ukrainians are sending what they can to the front line as they know more weapons and ammunition will arrive, but they probably won’t empty the stocks completely.

– There is a risk that these shipments could be attacked by the Russians. They can increase ammunition consumption, but what if the next shipment is destroyed or delayed – they have to take into account that that could happen, says Røseth.

Attacking the railroad

Last week, the Russian soldiers attacked several train transports of Western weapons. The attacks against the railway have been stepped up before a new offensive, says a Ukrainian military source.

A high-ranking Ukrainian security source tells the AFP news agency that Russia has stepped up its attacks against the Ukrainian railway network, and that the aim is to hit the transport of military material, including Western weapons and equipment.

The purpose is to destroy the railway and “paralyze the supply and movement of military goods” before a planned Russian offensive, sources say.

– These are typical steps before an offensive, says the source.

Tor Bukkvoll believes there is a small fear that the Russians could break through the Ukrainian defenses, but does not think there is an imminent danger of that happening.

– With the American support package in place, I don’t think they will have a major breakthrough. The Russian forces press on, and they use their old bombs that they put wings on. They are old, but they are quite powerful, and are a big problem for Ukraine, says Bukkvoll.

– An important decision

A lot of weapons and support are coming to Ukraine, but for now they are waiting.

– David Cameron has given the go-ahead that they can use British weapons on the Russian side, which is quite a significant decision. This means that the Russians have to move their logistics bases further from the front and logistics become much more difficult. The limits of what the West does in this war are gradually changing, says Tor Bukkvoll to Dagbladet.

The Russian offensive comes with a price. Russia has not stated casualty figures in the war, and although there is uncertainty about how many Russian soldiers have died, many experts believe that they are sending soldiers straight into the “meat grinder”.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed in February that 180,000 Russian forces had been killed in the war. British authorities estimate that around 450,000 Russians have been killed or wounded in the war.

France estimates that 150,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the war against Ukraine, says Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné.

In total, he estimates that the Russian loss figures, including wounded, total 500,000 after just over two years of war.