A cynical power play has been going on between Hamas and Israel. The pieces are the Palestinian civilians and the Israeli hostages.
The coming hours and days will be decisive for their fate. Hamas’s announcement gave little hope of an imminent ceasefire, but shortly afterwards an Israeli spokesman said the latest proposal was not acceptable.
This is how the diplomatic game has gone on, back and forth, for several months. Meanwhile, the number of people killed is rising. And the fear is increasing that the worst is yet to come.
There will be no ceasefire until both partners sign the agreement that Qatar and Egypt have put forward.
The last 24 hours started with ominous news.
On Sunday evening, rocket-propelled grenades were fired from Gaza at an Israeli border post. On Monday morning, Israel said 100,000 Palestinian civilians must leave parts of the southern Gaza Strip city of Rafah. In the morning the air raids came.
At the same time, the negotiations had apparently stalled. The prospect was terrifying. The final phase of the war in Gaza could be the worst.
An immediate ceasefire is needed to prevent a major disaster. Hamas has hesitated for a long time. The fact that they now say yes opens up the possibility of a better outcome. But it depends on what will be Israel’s official response.
It was hoped to get a ceasefire agreement in place before Easter, but the war has continued. The parties have blamed each other for the fact that countless rounds of negotiations have been fruitless.
A week ago there were signs that a breakthrough was imminent. Hamas came under strong pressure, including from the United States, to accept a draft that Israel was involved in.
A ceasefire will make it possible to supply far more people in Gaza with vital emergency aid. Hostages will be released in exchange for Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners.
But Hamas was not satisfied with just a few weeks’ pause in the war. They have previously demanded that a ceasefire must mean the end of the war in Gaza.
It was Hamas’ terrorist attack against Israel on 7 October that led Israel to go to war in Gaza. Israel has said it can accept a ceasefire but will not commit to ending the war against Hamas.
The evacuation of eastern neighborhoods in Rafah could be a precursor to the ground invasion of Rafah that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been talking about for weeks. It may also be that Israel uses the threat of an invasion as a means of pressure in the negotiations via mediators with Hamas.
If so, it worked. Hamas is under heavy pressure and on Monday night agreed to an agreement. The question now is what Israel will accept.
The war has now lasted 213 days. The civilians are paying the price for the stalled negotiations, in the form of hunger, distress, despair and loss.
Therefore, a cease-fire agreement must be put in place as quickly as possible. It requires flexibility from both sides.
Hamas fired rocket-propelled grenades at the Kerem Shalom border crossing on Sunday night. The attack led to the border post in the very south of Gaza being closed to emergency aid. It should also have led to a temporary halt in negotiations on a ceasefire, according to media in Egypt.
Four Israeli soldiers were killed in the attack on Kerem Shalom. In the course of 24 hours, 26 Palestinians were killed in Israeli airstrikes, according to the health authorities in Rafah. The number of people killed on the Palestinian side is approaching 35,000.
The leadership of Hamas is fighting for survival and for Hamas to remain as a military and political force on the day the war is over. Hamas is weakened militarily, but not defeated.
So does Netanyahu. He does everything to survive politically. Extraterrestrial forces are threatening to leave his government if they don’t get their way. By all accounts, Netanyahu will lose a new election.
That is why the war has gone on for so long. There has not been sufficient will on the part of either party to lay down their arms. The peace brokers, mainly Qatar, Egypt and the United States, have struggled to find the key to peace.
In Saudi Arabia last week, the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, made a clear message to the United States: Ask Israel not to attack Rafah. Abbas said that only the United States can prevent what he believes could be the greatest disaster in the history of the Palestinian people.
But the US has for a long time warned Israel against launching a major invasion on the ground in Rafah. The Americans have seen the Israeli plans for the evacuation of civilians, without being convinced that it will give civilians adequate protection.
Rafah, in the very south of the Gaza Strip, is crowded with internally displaced Palestinians. More than a million people in dire need are in this area.
The peace brokers are driven by strong vested interests. The Gaza war is also about domestic politics in your country.
For President Joe Biden, the war in Gaza has become a serious problem for his election campaign. Biden risks losing young voters that he needs to win the presidential election. This is shown by the large pro-Palestinian demonstrations at American universities.
Arab leaders fear that popular anger against Israel will turn against them. Authoritarian Arab regimes do not allow demonstrations, except when they themselves direct them. That is why countries such as Egypt and Jordan have imprisoned many who have demonstrated in support of Gaza in recent months.
They fear that the situation could get out of control, as during the Arab Spring more than ten years ago. In the Middle East, the war in Gaza has put everything at stake.
