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The protesters have gathered in Liberty Square in Tbilisi every day for over two weeks, and the intensity of the protests increases with each passing day.
The ruling Georgian Dream party has turned out to be a nightmare.
The party which is in reality ruled by the oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili had a final mask fall after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Read also: Georgian opposition leader beaten up during demonstration
Invaded, purged and partially occupied
Paradoxically, the country which was invaded by Russia in 2008, subjected to ethnic cleansing – and which still has 20 percent of its area under occupation, has been given a Moscow-loyal government.
It happened through false advertising and information warfare before the 2020 election.
Georgian Dream promised to continue the EU process and integration towards Europe. But in reality they chose to turn around and head for Moscow. The people wanted to go west, but were instead sent straight into Putin’s clutches.
Its true face
Now everyone sees who the Georgian Dream is, and there are elections right after the summer.
In an attempt to hold on to power, the government has brought forward three amendments to the law.
- The most famous is the so-called “Russian law”, which is actually a pretext for criminalizing large parts of civil society in the country.
- The other two laws are about allowing oligarchs to bring their money from foreign tax havens home to Georgia tax-free, and a culture war law that tightens the rights of LGBTQ+ people.
Defenders of democracy
Civil society is absolutely essential to protect democracy against its own authorities.
The big difference between the development of Belarus and Ukraine after the turn of the millennium is that Ukraine has had a strong enough civil society to insist on democratic development, while Lukashenko has succeeded in crushing civil society in Belarus.
Georgia has a strong civil society, which fights to stop the power grabs of the government.
But this is a crucial period. It is now that the protesters have power and momentum. If they give in and the government is allowed to continue undermining democracy, civil society will weaken over time.
Look at Hong Kong, Myanmar and Hungary.
Jørn Sund-Henriksen
Jørn Sund-Henriksen was an election observer in Kyiv during the Orange Revolution in 2004 and has served in the Coast Guard Command. He has worked with independent intelligence (OSINT) for over 10 years in several conflicts and is a leader in the Norwegian-Ukrainian Friends Association. His contributions are based on open-source research, and are thus an accumulation and analysis of currently available information, with the dangers of wrong sources it entails.
A new Euromaidan
The demonstrators in Tbilisi are in a very similar situation to the demonstrators at Euromaidan in 2014.
Despite the fact that the majority of the population (80 per cent) supports a development in the direction of EU membership, NATO membership and stronger integration with the West, the government has turned the country away from this development.
The people do not accept it, and now the confrontations between protesters and security forces have escalated to tear gas and rubber bullets.
The big question is what happens if the soldiers are ordered to shoot at their own population.
It is not inconceivable that the soldiers will act like the Soviet soldiers in Moscow in 1991, during the coup attempt against Gorbachev.
They listened to Yeltsin and switched sides.
General Dudayev did the same in Estonia. He refused to shoot civilians and instead went home to Chechnya and started their liberation struggle.
Also read: Optimistic for his home country Georgia: – They don’t have the resources to shoot
The long liberation struggle
It is along the same lines that we must understand what is happening in Georgia now.
Georgia is in its long struggle for liberation from the Russian Empire.
Like many other countries in the region, both Ukraine and Georgia are in the same long struggle for liberation that they have essentially been engaged in continuously since 1917, when an earlier version of the Russian Empire collapsed.
In the early 2000s, it was Georgia that had come the farthest in this struggle for liberation.
But the Russian invasion in 2008 put an end to that development. Ukraine experienced the same thing in 2014 and now in 2022.
A trend in the region
Even as the protests in Tbilisi escalate and Ukraine is in a full-scale existential war for its existence, they are not the only ones who want out of the Kremlin’s sphere of influence.
President Maia Sandu of Moldova has reversed the trend of increasingly strong Russian control over Moldova.
She has strengthened democratic institutions, expanded political freedoms, made the country less dependent on Russian gas and started the rebuilding of the country’s security forces.
She will come to Norway in May, and Norway has decided to open an embassy in Moldova.
Like Georgia, Moldova is exposed to continuous and partially effective information warfare.
Russia will do what they can to ensure that Sandu loses the next election.
An election that will decide which way Moldova will go.
Here you can read more by Jørn Sund-Henriksen
Armenia and Kazakhstan: Under heavy Russian influence
Armenia has been under heavy Russian influence since its “liberation” in 1992.
Having suffered significant military and territorial losses in the recent wars with Azerbaijan, Armenia learned that they are getting no help from Russia.
They have therefore turned west, and are trying to make a strategic shift in the direction of the West.
Kazakhstan has a similar westward trend and is nearly as loyal to Moscow as it was before the full-scale invasion. At the same time, it is also bubbling under the surface in several republics that are part of the Russian Federation.
Several of the places have an active opposition that wants independence.
Ukrainian offensive is long overdue
Right now, a new Ukrainian offensive, in which they take back territory, seems a long way off.
The protests in Tbilisi may nevertheless contribute to Ukraine winning the war.
The demonstrations not only lead to instability in Georgia, but also in Russia.
If Russia were to lose its influence in Georgia, Armenia and Moldova, it would be a severe loss of prestige.
It will weaken Russian deterrence.
It has already taken a significant hit after the more than two-year-long military disaster in Ukraine.
The fact that the authorities in Armenia, and the people of Georgia, are actively fighting for real secession shows that they are not as afraid of Russia as they have been in the past.
Read also: The Russians can do “whatever they want” with countries in Europe: Conscription must return
If Kadyrov were to die
Reduced Russian deterrence could have interesting results if, for example, Kadyrov were to die in Chechnya.
All along the Russian border there are people and authorities who are fighting in various ways for full secession from Russia and in the direction of democracy and freedom. On both sides of the border.
They are fighting the same battle as the soldiers on the front in Ukraine. Even if the others do not fight with weapons, yet, we should support all peoples who are waging a legitimate struggle for self-determination.
Read also: Putin’s trolls: Who are they?
Only eight percent live in a democracy
Only eight percent of the world’s population lives in a democracy.
We are endangered, and it is in our interest to help all emerging democracies. Whether they are fighting to hold trenches in Ukraine or protesting in the streets of Tbilisi.
Therefore, we ask everyone to turn up at the solidarity march for all those who are fighting against Russian oppression, in front of the Storting on Saturday at 12.00.
With particular focus on Ukraine and Georgia.
The regime in Moscow will never stop on its own. They must be stopped.
It is not only about solidarity, but also about our own security.
Tags: Georgia Putin Euromaidan Georgia
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