Eurovision 2024 – We forget this in Norway

MALMÖ (Dagbladet): As expected, Israel’s Eden Golan advanced to the Eurovision final from Norway’s semi-final on Thursday evening.

Now the odds for an Israeli victory plummet.

Golan has been confined to the hotel during his entire stay in Malmö due to the threat situation surrounding the Israeli delegation. Calls to ban Israel from the war in Gaza, demonstrations in the streets and booing during the performance, however, may have had quite the opposite effect.

Israel seems to be getting buckets and buckets of protest votes.

Add those who wish to express sympathy with Israel after the terrorist attack on October 7 last year in which 1,139 people were killed and 250 Israelis, including 30 children, were taken hostage.

– There is a strong political movement to vote tactically for Israel. We forget that a bit here in Norway, which is probably the most Israel-critical country in Europe with a very strong sympathy for Palestine, says Eurovision expert Sveinung Rotevatn.

The power of the minority

Rotevatn is a parliamentary representative for Venstre when he is not commenting on the music competition. The European-oriented Eurovision expert asks us not to think that Norway is Europe.

– The same is not the case in Germany, Italy and a number of other European countries. There is strong sympathy for Israel.

Rotevatn’s personal favorite is Croatia, who he still thinks will win. But after the semi-final yesterday and the fall in the odds of a victory for Israel, he now believes they will come in second place.

– You need far from a clear majority of votes to get 12 points from a country. There are so many entries and you just have to have the most votes. Any action that has a certain critical mass behind it can collect a lot of points, says Rotevatn.

Complete confusion: – Don’t believe it

Shocking figures from Italy

Italian broadcaster RAI published the vote tally for Italy during yesterday’s semi-final, in breach of regulations. There, Israel received 39 percent of the votes, while the Netherlands in second place received 7 percent. It has not yet been confirmed that the figures are correct and RAI has announced that they will come up with an explanation later on Friday.

– It is beginning to seep out from various places that Israel has done very well. 39 percent in Italy is – with the reservation that it is true – something that contributes to lowering the odds on Israel, says Rotevatn.

Israel’s participation is now politics in every possible way, both from those who wanted them banned and advocate for a boycott and from those who want to support them.

– This is of course politics, but Eurovision has always been politics. It is nothing new. Ukraine has won a couple of times recently and it’s not just because of song quality. The fact that there is strong political sympathy with a country has a lot to say, says Rotevatn.

Rotevatn points out that points are never awarded between Azerbaijan and Armenia and that Cyprus always gives 12 points to Greece.

– There is a significant minority who have strong sympathy for Israel and they do not boycott. They use up the contact card! says Rotevatn.

Afraid of scandal

Morten Thomassen, head of the Norwegian MGP club, says the following when asked what he thinks if Israel wins.

– Then I am seriously afraid that it could be a real shot in the arm for the competition. This year’s show has become a scandal. Then you can wonder who really wants to organize. It is unlikely that they can arrange as the situation is now. One can also wonder who will take over the role of organizer, as happened with Ukraine last year.

Long-time MGP and Eurovision commentator from NRK, Jostein Pedersen, does not think Israel will win.

– It’s a ballad and depends a bit on where the wind blows. It seems that Europe wants to dance and that it is the fast-paced songs that do it best. Of course, it is also about the human side here. Sending a 20-year-old girl out on that stage is not just, just, he says to Dagbladet.

He thinks Israel’s song is a completely average Eurovision song, but draws the following scenario if Israel wins.

– There are so many conflicts and situations. The world continues to move forward even though there is war. It will never be the end of Eurovision. I assume they will find some way to solve it, he says.

12 points from Norway?

– Do you think there will be 12 points from the Norwegian people to Israel?

Rotevatn goes for it.

– No, I don’t think so, but there will probably be 12 points from quite a few others. It will be very interesting.

Rotevatn believes that the entire jury should have been abolished and believes that a real victory in the competition is about winning the people.

– I still think Croatia will actually win Eurovision – i.e. the popular vote, but I am more and more unsure. If I were to guess, it would be Croatia first and Israel second, says Norwegian politics’ Eurovision expert.