Norway sets a dangerous course in the South China Sea

On April 9, the Australian think tank Lowy arranged a conversation with Admiral John Aquilino. Aquilino is commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command. During the conversation, the situation at the Second Thomas Shoal atoll was highlighted as the most dangerous focal point in the enormous geographical area of ​​responsibility of Aquilino.

There, well inside the Philippines’ 200-mile zone, Philippine supply ships have been harassed by Chinese coast guard ships and paramilitary vessels. Both Philippine ships and crew members have been injured during the clashes.

When it comes to the conflict in the South China Sea, Norway separates itself from the USA and the EU. It is basically not a good strategy, and Norwegian indifference to a serious breach of the law of the sea makes matters worse.

The Solberg government’s declaration of support

The policy is a legacy from the Solberg government. In 2016, the Philippines won at the Disputes Tribunal in The Hague that China is violating the Convention on the Law of the Sea. When the EU declared its agreement to the ruling from The Hague, Norway was missing from the list of countries that supported the EU’s statement.

At the same time, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs worked on a declaration that would normalize diplomatic relations with Beijing. When this was presented in December of the same year, we could read that “The Norwegian Government […] fully respects China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”. A formulation that the authorities in Beijing most certainly pressed to their chest, as support for their legally rejected claims in the South China Sea.

The Norwegian authorities prioritized a kneeling for Beijing over support for the law of the sea. It is difficult to understand how the Solberg government came to the conclusion that this was a good strategic choice for Norway.

Developments in the South China Sea

Now, eight years later, China continues to defy the law of the sea. Tensions between the People’s Republic and the Philippines are increasing: The number of reported incidents involving ships from China and the Philippines has increased after Ferdinand Marcos jr. took over as president almost two years ago. Especially in the last six months, there has been a clear escalation.

However, the official sources must be taken with a grain of salt. Sources in the Philippine Coast Guard have revealed that there was a gross under-reporting of incidents under the country’s previous president, Rodrigo Duterte. But the experience was and is that the Chinese authorities show no interest in de-escalating the conflict.

Here follows a brief description of three of the many incidents from this year that illustrate the methods used by the Chinese Coast Guard to harass Philippine vessels:

• On January 12, the Chinese Coast Guard refused a Philippine fishing boat to leave the Scarborough Reef (Bajo de Masinloc) until the fishermen had thrown overboard the shells they had collected.

• On 5 March, Chinese coast guard ships used water cannons against Philippine supply vessels at Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin Shoal) atoll, and carried out two premeditated collisions against the vessels. Four Filipino crew members were injured in the clashes.

• On March 23, another clash occurred at the same location, with damage to Filipino crew and ships.

The provocations, including these examples, take place regularly, deep within the Philippines’ 200-mile economic zone.

Philippine Alliance Building

Developments in recent weeks indicate that the Philippines will not sit idly by and watch the harassment continue: President Ferdinand Marcos jr. stated in late March that work is underway to implement a “package” of responses and anti-harassment measures in the area Filipinos refer to as the West Philippine Sea.

On April 7, the Philippines, Australia, the United States and Japan conducted a joint naval exercise in the South China Sea. According to Australia’s defense minister, the background for the exercise was to support the right to free navigation at sea, as well as show respect for sovereignty. Japan’s defense minister pointed out that the situation in the South China Sea gives cause for concern for stability and peace in the area.

Alliance building also takes place on a political level. On March 19, President Marcos and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken met in Manila. The wink expressed unbreakable support for the Philippines, and a desire to strengthen the good relations between the countries.

The talks in Manila were also a preparation for the summit on 11 April in Washington DC between the heads of state of the Philippines, Japan and the United States. During this meeting, President Biden confirmed the United States’ commitments to defend the Philippines, as stated in the two countries’ defense pact. The online newspaper Politico has recently reported that the three nations are planning a joint patrol in the South China Sea later this year.

Neither party wants a military escalation. But accidents and misunderstandings are always a concern in such a situation. Therefore, it is conceivable that a serious confrontation between US and Chinese naval forces will first take place in the South China Sea, and not in the Taiwan Strait.

The Støre government and the “European line”

It is almost eight years since the Disputes Tribunal presented its binding judgment against China’s claim to territorial waters in the South China Sea. The situation is still that the Norwegian authorities have not publicly recognized the verdict, much less come up with any statement of support for the Philippines.

Maybe https://twitter.com/NorwayAmbMnl/status/1765673395197485388/Twitter March 7 from Norway’s Manila ambassador on whether the conflict was a step in the right direction? In the message, the ambassador acknowledged that a conflict exists between the Philippines and China. But the statement was anemic: the ambassador contented himself with a call to resolve the dispute within the framework of the Convention on the Law of the Sea. Without showing that there is actually a binding judgment from The Hague.

The contrast with the statement from the EU spokesperson for foreign and security policy is marked. He emphasized that the provocations by Chinese coast guard ships within the Philippines’ 200-mile economic zone are completely unacceptable.

The spokesperson referred to the unacceptable behavior of the Chinese coast guard, the ban on the use of force and other coercive acts at sea, and – not least – to the judgment from The Hague.

“The government will cooperate with China along a Nordic and European line, on common interests”. The wording is taken from the Hurdal platform. The Støre government’s failure to follow through on this intention is disturbing and worrisome, and could put us on edge with our allies.