In some international surveys, Norway comes out as the country with the most climate deniers. These findings have been frequently cited in Norwegian and international media, and are often presented as a fundamental problem, not only for Norway’s reputation, but also for the possibility of pursuing a good climate policy. However, the interpretation of these surveys is misleading.
In reality, only a small minority of the Norwegian population can reasonably be called climate deniers. This is also the case in most other countries with which we can compare ourselves. The vast majority recognize that human activity contributes to climate change, although some believe that natural processes also affects the climate. Norway faces many challenges in dealing with climate change. Widespread climate denial is not such a challenge.
Created headlines
A survey by Yougov in 2019 made headlines because only 35 percent of the Norwegian respondents answered that human activity is the main cause of climate change. This was the lowest proportion of any country. At the opposite end of the scale, we find India, where 71 percent say the same.
The vast majority recognize that human activity contributes to climate change, although some believe that natural processes also affect the climate.
Johannes Bergh and Viljar Christian Hambro
Head of department and research fellow, ISF
The results are quoted in a number of media around the world, not least in India. At the same time, the survey shows that 48 per cent of Norwegians believe that human activity is partly responsible for climate change, along with other factors.
It is not reasonable to call such a view “climate denial” – which we understand as a position that the climate is not changing or that human activity is not responsible. In Yougov’s survey, only 10 percent of the Norwegian population thinks this.
Made headlines, but is it true?
In another survey from the EU-funded research project Public Trust in Expertise in the Context of Climate Change and COVID-19 (PERITIA), Norwegians are asked to assess whether the following statement is “true” or “false”: “Climate change is mainly due to human activities”. There were more people in Norway than in the other six countries in the survey who answered “false”: 24 per cent.
This has created headlines that over a million Norwegians are climate deniers or skeptics.[1]
It sounds undeniably dramatic that every fourth Norwegian is a climate denier, but is it true? If you look more closely at the question, it does not leave room for the interpretation we have been presented with in the media. What do the participants in the survey actually put in «mainly human activities”?
Combination
That climate change is over 80 percent man-made? Over 50 percent? We do not know this. Furthermore, other surveys show that a significant proportion of Norwegians believe that climate change is due to a combination of human activity and natural processes. In the survey from PERITIA, it is unclear what to answer if you mean this. Many of these have probably answered “false” to the statement above.
The vast majority recognize that human activity contributes to climate change, although some believe that natural processes also affect the climate.
Johannes Bergh and Viljar Christian Hambro
Head of department and research fellow, ISF
One of the best international surveys, where great resources are put into gathering representative samples and asking good questions that can be compared across countries, is the European Social Survey (ESS).
In round 10 of the survey, which was carried out between 2020 and 2022, there are a number of questions about climate. One of them is this: “Do you think climate change is due to natural processes, human activity, or both?”.
The answers from all countries in the survey are in the figure below. Again, there are around 10 per cent in Norway who can be defined as climate deniers. There are fewer than in Israel and North Macedonia, and more than in France and Slovenia. In Norway, 44 per cent of respondents answer “equally both”. It is a position that can be debated, but it is an acknowledgment that climate change is to a significant extent man-made. The remaining respondents in Norway answer that climate change is mainly or entirely human-made.
Personal responsibility
In the interpretations of the surveys from Perita and Yougov, some of those who believe that climate change is due to a combination of human and natural activity are attributed to being climate deniers or climate sceptics. Background figures from ESS show that there is hardly any basis for this interpretation.
In the same survey, respondents are asked: “To what extent do you feel a personal responsibility to try to reduce climate change?”
The idea that climate denial is widespread in Norway should be rejected.
Johannes Bergh and Viljar Christian Hambro
Head of department and research fellow, ISF
The answers are given on a scale from 0 to 10, and the figure shows the average score per country. Norway is among the countries where the population feels this kind of personal responsibility to the greatest extent. If we only look at the group that answered “equally both” to the question of whether climate change is natural or man-made, they get a score of 6.5. This would place them roughly in the middle of the figure below, on par with Sweden. This group, although they not have answered that climate change is entirely or mainly man-made, so feel a considerable degree of personal responsibility for trying to reduce climate change.
The idea should be rejected
The idea that climate denial is widespread in Norway should be rejected. Such a misconception can stand in the way of political parties’ willingness to take initiative. Climate denial exists, but is not particularly widespread, which Cicero’s annual survey on Norwegians’ attitudes to climate change also shows. Climate policy is a difficult political field where there can be strong disagreements about which measures are correct and necessary. This is where the debates and disagreements in climate policy lie. A summary of research in this field shows the same: most recognize that climate change is real and to a significant extent man-made; the disagreements arise over the question of what we should do about this. The problems are many, but widespread climate denial is not a particularly big problem in Norway.
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[1] https://www.tv2.no/nyheter/innenriks/mange-nordmenn-er-klimafornektere-derfor-kan-hans-bli-en-oyeapner/15954319/
https://www.dagsavisen.no/debatt/kommentar/2022/07/25/en-million-klimafornektere/
https://www.forskning.no/klima-ntb/eu-studie-en-av-fire-nordmenn-tror-ikke-klimaendringene-er-mennesskapt/2047611
