– Here, it doesn’t take much before sea level rise leads to a change.
Lise Peterson stands in Vågen in central Stavanger and looks out to sea. She is head of department in preparedness and community development in the municipality
– The biggest challenges are down here where we already have buildings.
Stavanger is among the places in Norway that “are in a bad position”, says Peterson. Because even if the world reaches the most ambitious climate targets, the sea will continue to rise here.
This is confirmed by a recent report from the Mapping Authority, the Meteorological Institute and a number of other experts. The report deals with the sea level in Norway for the next 80 years, and until 2300.
Stavanger municipality keeps a close eye on the sea level, says Peterson.
Photo: Simon Elias Bogen / NRK
Western Norway and Southern Norway will be the fastest and hardest hit.
But if the globe warms two degrees or more, most of the country will experience rising seas. Today, the world is on track for 2.9 degrees of warming – if all countries are cutting what they have promised.
If this happens, the sea level in Stavanger could rise by 45 centimeters by 2100. The report also has figures for several other cities:
- Bergen: 42 cm.
- Tromsø: 27 cm.
- Oslo: 13 cm.
And the higher the temperatures, the higher the risk.
– This means that some parts of the country will be under water. But primarily in the short term, it means that we will experience flooding from the sea more often than before, says Matthew Simpson, researcher at the Norwegian Mapping Authority.
He has led the work on the new report.
Lucky Norway
Higher sea levels make the extreme more extreme. Floods from the sea reach higher and further inland.
Just ten centimeters higher seas will lead to a tripling of the risk of flooding from the sea, according to the report.
Bryggen in Bergen is on the World Heritage List and is threatened by sea level rise. High water and rainfall from the start of the year.
Photo: Silje Katrine Robinson / NTB
So far, Norway has gotten away cheaper than many other countries.
On average, the sea level has risen by 14 cm since 1966. But there are large regional differences. Parts of Norway’s land mass have also risen, for example Oslo.
But the land elevation will not protect us going forward, the report states.
Matthew Simpson has led the work on the sea level report.
Photo: Milana Knezevic / NRK
Simpson in the Mapping Authority warns against a false sense of security:
– There is certainly a danger that we think that this is not a problem that concerns us, and we ignore the long-term risk we are exposing ourselves to.
– I think Norway has been little prepared, because we have been shielded to such a large extent from sea level rise, says Ellen Hambro, Director of the Norwegian Environment Agency.
They have ordered the report.
Can’t rule out “horror scenario”
In the report, the researchers use the latest climate science to consider several different future scenarios.
– If we are good at reducing emissions, we can stick to two degrees of warming or less. If we invest a lot in oil, coal and gas, we will get a lot of warming. We explored all these scenarios to see what it would mean for sea level rise in Norway.
Oslo is one of the places that can be shielded from sea level rise, if emissions are cut.
Photo: Stian Lysberg Solum / NTB
If the world cuts emissions quickly, Oslo, for example, can avoid sea level rise entirely, according to the report.
It also deals with the horror scenario, which is unlikely but has catastrophic consequences.
This means that emissions continue to increase, tipping points are triggered and the ice on Antarctica is melting rapidly. This cannot be ruled out, says the report.
The most extreme sea levels are unlikely, but cannot be ruled out.
Photo: Simon Elias Bogen / NRK
For Stavanger, in the worst case scenario, this could mean that the sea will rise almost two meters by 2100.
It is important that risk analyzes also include the worst possible outcomes, explains Simpson.
– If you are planning for infrastructure that has a long life, or where the consequences of sea level rise can be very large, that type of information is interesting.
The municipalities have responsibility
Going forward, the authority must take action, says Ellen Hambro in the Norwegian Environment Agency.
– Firstly, the most important thing is to work hard to cut our emissions.
In addition, we must start preparing society, she believes. New buildings should not be placed in exposed areas. Existing buildings on the coast must be adapted and protected.
Storms did not scare these Tromsø weathermen away from the coast.
Photo: Rune Stoltz Bertinussen / NTB
Much of the responsibility for handling the problem will end up with the municipalities. The Directorate for Social Security and Preparedness (DSB) is now working on a guide for the municipalities, based on the new report.
Hambro fears that small municipalities in particular will struggle. Several lack the funds and expertise that the large municipalities have more of.
Stavanger has been working with the problem for many years and many solutions are expensive, says emergency manager Lise Peterson. She hopes the state can come to the fore with new support schemes.
– We are looking at a solution called a piling, where steel plates are hammered down along the water’s edge, to stop the water from getting in underneath.
