The war in Ukraine: – Intense fighting:

The goal should be to secure as influential a position as possible – in case Vladimir Putin’s fifth term as Russian president becomes his last, writes the online newspaper.

This is reported by the independent Russian online newspaper Meduza.

– Putin turns 72 in October, and is already older than the average life expectancy in Russia. There may be some who believe that it is not political but biological issues that primarily determine Russia’s future, says Jakub M. Godzimirski, researcher at the Norwegian Foreign Policy Institute (Nupi), to Dagbladet.

“Great uncertainty”

In the near future, it is expected that Russia’s war president will present his new government cabal.

– There are many who expect that there will be a restructuring of the power apparatus as a result of the so-called election. In order to secure important positions, a number of people are now positioning themselves, says Godzimirski, who has worked with Russian foreign and security policy for over 20 years.

There is therefore great excitement about what Putin’s government cabal will look like.

– And uncertainty has also been created after the arrest of Timur Ivanov, the country’s deputy defense minister. Many interpret it as an element of this power struggle in the circle under Putin, says the Nupi researcher.

The arrest of Ivanov was surprising, because the deputy defense minister is a close ally of defense minister Sergei Shoigu, who will again be part of Putin’s inner circle.

That the arrest took place so soon after the Russian presidential election and before Putin’s inauguration may in itself be a sign that Russia’s strongman is no longer in the same weight class.

– There are many ways to understand the Russian regime, but many will think that Putin’s power is slightly weakened, says Godzimirski.

Agree with Churchill

In various independent Russian media, there is a flurry of speculation about what Putin’s new government cabal might look like. The task is virtually futile for outsiders, believes Godzimirski, and refers to Winston Churchill’s description of power struggles in the Kremlin:

“Political intrigue in the Kremlin is like a bulldog fight under a blanket: The one on the outside hears only growling. Only when the bones come to the surface do you know who has won”.

There are, nevertheless, several important factors that influence the power struggle that unfolds behind the scenes, the Nupi researcher believes, and points to two particularly important axes in the Russian power elite:

1: Supporters and opponents of the war in Ukraine.

– They don’t express it, but there are many so-called technocrats who are against the war and believe it is to Russia’s misfortune. On the other side, there are many who are in favor of using force, says Godzimirski.

2: Older and younger.

– It is obvious that there is a certain tension between different generations in the Russian power apparatus. The people Putin has the best relationship with are people he has known for many years. They are approaching or older than 70 years. There are many younger people who are in many ways in the queue for power, and there are very few who break through this generational barrier, says the Nupi researcher.

“Zero-sum game”

With certain high-ranking positions in the Russian power apparatus comes not only influence, but also access to large financial resources. The expected changes in Russia’s ruling elite are therefore unsettling for those already in influential positions.

– The Russian regime operates a zero-sum game: When someone is promoted, it means that others must have their position weakened, says Godzimirski.

– Then we are back to one of the most important debates about what Russia and Putin are concerned with, and here there are two competing points of view, he adds.

The question is whether the Russian regime primarily intends to make Russia a great power, or to enrich itself and its allies – at the expense of the country’s population, says Godzimirski.

– The reality is probably a mixture of both, he says.

Although many observers are now anxiously waiting for Putin’s government cabal, Nupi researcher Godzimirski believes that one should not look blindly at who may enter and exit government offices in Russia.

– The Russian regime consists of two parts: a formal and an informal part. Anyone who has followed Russia for many years knows that the informal part also plays an important role. You don’t necessarily have to have a formal role and institution behind you to secure access to financial resources or Putin’s favor, says Godzimirski.