Russia, Vladimir Putin | Wild speculation: – Possible Putin replacement

On Wednesday, Vladimir Putin officially began his fifth term as President of Russia. Putin began his first presidential term in 2000, and has effectively ruled Russia ever since.

One of Putin’s closest allies in recent years has been Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

After Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on the night of 24 February 2022, rumors have nevertheless abounded that Shoigu’s position is hanging in the balance.

Stay up to date on the war in Ukraine, listen to the Ukrainapodden on Spotify, and all other podcast platforms.

Russian bloodbath

What was intended by Russia to be a quick military operation to overthrow Zelenskyi’s democratically elected government in Ukraine has turned into a two-year bloodbath. Ukraine claims that Russia has lost over 475,000 soldiers. Although most Western experts believe that this number is excessively high, there is no doubt that Russia has suffered huge losses in Ukraine.

Also read: Longing out for Putin: – Serious and unacceptable

Now that Putin is about to embark on a new term as president, the speculation that Shoigu will be replaced has really gained momentum. The man who is singled out as the favorite to take over the job is Aleksej Djumin.

Djumin is currently the governor of Tula, and is supposed to be a man Vladimir Putin has great confidence in.

Hot name

– He has been mentioned many times as a possible replacement for Shojgu, says Jakub Godzimirski to Nettavisen.

Godzimirski says that Djumin has been part of Putin’s lifeguard force in the past. When the Wagner group revolted and marched towards Moscow in June 2023, many believed that only Aleksej Dyumin could stop the march, says the researcher.

Also read: Researcher critical of the Ukraine aid: – A patchwork

– Djumin is a name that comes up at regular intervals. He is also mentioned as a possible replacement for Putin in the long term, says Godzimirski to Nettavisen.

Setback for Sjojgu

Godzimirski tells Nettavisen that the recent arrest of the Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov may indicate that there is some kind of power struggle in the apparatus around Putin.

– Ivanov was shown in full uniform in a glass cage in court. It was interpreted as a powerful blow for Sjojgu. If you wanted to avoid a scandal, you could do it. Car accidents, heart attacks and falling out of windows are common in Russia. Here there is another showdown in the circle around Putin, believes the Nupi researcher.

Also read: Expert: – Could be extra nasty for Putin

He finds it difficult to believe that Ivanov was arrested, without it being clarified from the highest levels.

In Putin’s new presidential term, it is expected that changes will be made in the apparatus around him.

– It is a good opportunity for Putin to replace Shoigu, but whether he will take advantage of the opportunity is a completely different question. I tend to say that understanding Russian politics is as difficult as understanding love, chuckles Godzimirski.

Also read: – An Achilles’ heel for the Russian Air Force

Current Minister of Defense Sergej Sjojgu himself came to power after a corruption scandal. Sjojgu’s predecessor did not receive a prison sentence, but had to take his hat and leave.

– Shoigu was regarded by the rest of the Russian defense as someone who came from outside. He was not part of the military system, says Godzimirski.

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Massive criticism

During the roughly two years of full-scale war in Ukraine, Sergei Shoigu has been exposed to massive criticism from many Russian war bloggers.

– Dismissing Sjojgu now can also be seen as an admission that the defense force has not functioned as it should, despite the enormous expenditure of money. Replacing him now could be a good opportunity without placing the blame for the failure in Ukraine on Shoigu, Godzimirski believes.

Aleksej Djumin will be closely allied with the director of the National Guard in Russia, Viktor Zolotov.

– There have been many rumors that the two want to take over the Ministry of Defence. Djumin is simply a hot name, sums up Godzimirski.