– An urgent need – Dagsavisen

– France will soon have the ability to deliver 78 Caesar howitzers to Ukraine, and will increase shipments of ammunition to meet Kyiv’s urgent needs in the fight against Russia’s full-scale invasion, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu said this week.

Howitzers are a type of artillery gun.

France aims to deliver 80,000 artillery shells during the year, according to AP News. Recently, several of Ukraine’s allies have come forward with both promises and plans for large-scale deliveries of artillery.

Is the West doing enough?

Czech President Petr Pavel said earlier this month that the country could deliver as many as 800,000 artillery shells to Ukraine if it received enough financial support from its allies to carry it out.

– So far we have found half a million caliber 155 mm artillery shells, and 300,000 caliber 122 mm shells, which we can bring to Ukraine within a few weeks if we get the necessary funds. We will take this up with our partners in the USA, Germany, Sweden and so on for such assistance, Pavel said according to NTB.

The shipment comes at the same time as the discussion is ongoing in both NATO and the EU about whether the West is doing enough to help Ukraine. Lithuania’s foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, recently stated that he believed Europe lacked not the ability, but the political will, to support Ukraine and equip its own defence.

Pressure on Ukraine’s allies to contribute more is increasing. NATO leader Jens Stoltenberg stated earlier this year that NATO is in an ammunition race against Russia in Ukraine.

Also read: Ex-general on Putin’s war: – Ukraine will lose

Norway on the pitch

Earlier this month, Norway came to the fore with several ambitious promises.

– Ukraine has an urgent need for large quantities of artillery ammunition to stand up to the Russian war of aggression. Norway supports Ukraine with artillery ammunition both from its own stockpiles and directly from the industry. We have today decided to contribute up to NOK 1.6 billion to an initiative under the auspices of the Czech Republic, to secure much-needed artillery ammunition to Ukraine as quickly as possible, said Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre.

Now it turns out that the project is getting bigger, according to the Kyiv Independent.

The Czech foreign minister said in an interview with Bloomberg this week that they could deliver much more than first thought, estimating as many as 1.5 million artillery shells.

Earlier in March, Denmark also announced a new support package for Ukraine. The package consists of both artillery guns and ammunition worth 2.3 billion Danish kroner. The artillery guns are of the same type that France is to send, named Caesar.

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Artillery race

The Ukrainians are in dire need of ammunition. According to a study conducted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the Ukrainians need as much as 75–90,000 artillery shells just to adequately maintain their defensive capabilities. If Ukraine were to launch a new offensive to reverse the Russians’ recent advance, according to the study, they would need as much as 200-250,000 artillery shells a month.

The USA is still the main supplier of defense material to Ukraine. But further support from the Americans will become an increasingly complicated political project. If European leaders are to meet Ukraine’s military needs, a large-scale industrial investment is needed.

Chief researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI), Tor Bukkvoll, believes the shipments of artillery to Ukraine are important.

– They have much less artillery than Russia has. Estimates vary, but the Russians fire something like seven to ten times more artillery than the Ukrainians do. So it is about an inferiority which is quite large, says Bukkvoll.

He points out that Ukraine’s artillery strength has decreased over time.

– Ukraine has been high both in quality and quantity in connection with the counter-offensive they had last year, but after that they have gradually decreased in number. Russia has a much larger own production of artillery than Ukraine, and that they have obtained some from North Korea, he says.

Impossible to win

Bukkvoll believes that one should be careful in saying with certainty how much production capacity Russia has when it comes to artillery.

– Estimates are terribly uncertain, especially if the estimated number comes from Russia, as Russia has a great vested interest in portraying this war as unwinnable for Ukraine. If Russia gets through with the narrative that Ukraine cannot win, then it will be a question in the West whether there is any point in helping them in the first place, he says.

– Can Europe ever hope to reach Russian production levels alone, not necessarily quantitatively, but so that it is sufficient?

– Quantitatively, it is not certain that it is possible, but qualitatively it can happen. There is a significant difference in the quality of artillery shells – how far they go, how accurate they are, and how much damage they do.

– An incredible amount of artillery is used on the battlefield in Ukraine. Is this an artillery war?

– Yes, and it has been that way from the beginning. It has a bit to do with the fact that you have two conventional and mechanized army forces facing each other. It also has something to do with both sides having so much air defense. Although combat aircraft are used by both sides, the air dimension in this war has been reduced. It is not unimportant, but reduced. As the possibility of air power diminishes, the importance of artillery increases.

Also read: Lithuania’s foreign minister: – We lack the political will to support Ukraine

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