Norwegian experts on Ukrainian dam: – Can see a clear explosion

The explosion from the dam in Kherson hit measuring stations 500 kilometers away from the dam.

– We collect data from a number of sensors from both Romania and Ukraine and when we looked at the data, we could see a clear explosion on Tuesday at 02.54, local time, says Ben Dando, department head for trial suspension control at Norsar.

That time matches when the first reports of the dam came.

Norsar is a research foundation that monitors earthquakes.

On the night of Tuesday, the enormously important dam in the Russian-occupied Kherson was blown up. It triggered an atmosphere of crisis in the already war-torn country, and an emergency meeting at the UN.

Thousands of inhabitants are displaced, and large, important agricultural areas may become desert. On Thursday morning, the Russian news agency RIA reports that five people have died after the dam collapse. This figure has so far not been confirmed by other sources and the extent is probably not clarified.

It was unclear at first whether it was a collapse or an explosion. It has gradually become clear that the latter is more likely. And now the earthquake experts see it in black and white.

Ukraine accuses Russian forces of blowing up the vital dam. US intelligence also claims Russia is behind it.

Russia believes that Ukraine itself was behind it.

The stations that Norsar uses to detect explosions are located between 500-600 kilometers away from the dam.

– Which is actually further away than we like in terms of analyzing the signals, but the source is still clear, emphasizes Ben Dando.

That is why the Kakhovka dam is important

• Russia took control of the Nova Kakhovka dam shortly after Ukraine was invaded last February.
• The Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine held in place a lake 240 kilometers long.
• Russia and Ukraine control each side of the river.
• The lake behind the dam also supplies the annexed Crimean Peninsula with drinking water through a canal.
• The lake also provides water for cooling Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, the Zaporizjzja power plant. There is currently no danger to the power plant.

– How big was the explosion?

– For the time being, we expect it to be under two on the earthquake scale, but it is not so easy to confirm because of the distance to the dam. We will do further analysis to find more answers.

– The reports I have read from Ukrainian intelligence clearly believe that there was an explosion and that is definitely what the seismic data shows. This is a completely objective finding.

– A collapse would not behave like that

Dando’s boss, managing director of Norsar Anne Strømmen Lyche, says the monitoring from the Norwegian side takes place in connection with nuclear power plants in Ukraine – especially Zaporizhzhya, which is occupied by the Russians.

– We cannot say anything about who blew up, and it is difficult to say how big the explosion was. What is interesting is that a collapse would not behave as the signals show.

– What kind of signals?

– It is the same type as in all other explosions, such as atomic bombs.

– All reports have uncertainty about whether there was an explosion or collapse or what it was, and we hope we can help to narrow down that uncertainty.

Pointing to Russia

The various theories about what caused the dam failure are also directly linked to who or what triggered the explosion.

The authorities in Moscow claim it was “sabotage”, while the Russian-instated authorities on the eastern bank claim it was fired at the dam with Ukrainian artillery.

Tom Røseth, principal lecturer in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense Academy, points out that both of these explanations are unlikely:

– Firstly, it was the Russians who had physical control over the dam. Secondly, there were credible reports already in October last year that the Russians had mined the dam itself, says Røseth.

The dam was mined to prevent the Ukrainians from using the bridge on top of the dam to get over to the other side, but also as a threat, explains Røseth.

– Could the explosion itself have been triggered by shelling, by artillery fire hitting the mines?

– I can hardly imagine that. Experts on dams have pointed out that the explosion had to come from within the structure itself, so an external hit is an unlikely explanation.

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