It was always going to be tough for the Milwaukee Brewers to repeat as division champions this season, but the Brew Crew heads home for a chance to take on the struggling St. Louis Cardinals.
The classic rivalry is set up as a contrast of sorts from preseason expectations. While the Brewers were expected to take a step back after losing players like Corbin Burnes, the Cardinals were hopeful a fresh corps of starters and offensive bouncebacks could lead to contention.
Instead, the Brewers have a chance to build on their early standing in the division while adding to the Cardinals’ struggles. The Cardinals’ 15-21 record leaves them sitting six games behind the Brewers. Their inability to match other competitive teams has been a notable narrative during their season with a 7-14 record against teams with at least a .500 winning percentage, including an 0-3 record against Milwaukee.
After the team’s hot start, the Brewers have played at a fairly middling pace over the last two weeks. Entering play on Wednesday, Milwaukee ranked 14th in runs scored and 17th in ERA over the last 15 days. That’s hardly a bad omen, but it shows the recent struggles to build on their dominant start. Although the squad has scuffled offensively, there is still an abundance of lineup options to work through any issues.
The problems in St. Louis are much more magnified. The offense hasn’t come close to resembling the blueprint that the Cardinals would have had upon the start of the season. Over the past 30 games, St. Louis ranks 28th in runs scored while averaging a mere 3.2 runs per game. A recent injury to Willson Contreras will sting the Cardinals even more as he was their only hitter performing at an All-Star level. Players to watch in his absence include Alec Burleson and Nolan Arenado, who have both found some form in recent weeks.
The pitching for St. Louis has been better than last season, but not good enough to carry the team through their offensive slump. The three big additions to their rotation have performed more than well enough to keep the team competitive, but the lineup hasn’t held up its end of the bargain. Sonny Gray (0.89 ERA) has continued his Cy Young form from last season. Lance Lynn (3.28 ERA) and Kyle Gibson (3.68 ERA) have been solid, but their underlying numbers hint towards potential regression in the future.
Probable Pitching Matchups
Thursday, May 9 @ 6:40 pm: Tobias Myers (6.23 ERA) vs. Sonny Gray (0.89 ERA)
Tobias Myers has stumbled out of the gates in his rookie season, so it will be fascinating to see how he attacks this Cardinals lineup. Myers’ 6.23 ERA doesn’t offer much for encouragement, but there is still plenty of room for growth. He has succeeded in getting batters to chase out of the zone, but he has had problems with his cutter. As he adapts his approach and pitch mix, his development will be an interesting storyline.
The Brewers’ most difficult test of the series will come in the series opener as they face down Sonny Gray. The runner-up in last year’s AL Cy Young race with the Twins, Gray has continued right where he left off. Not only is his 0.89 ERA a stunning statistic but he’s pitched even better than his exceptional 2023 campaign.
He is striking out batters at a career-high rate. Batters can’t square up his pitches, with just a 29.6% hard-hit rate allowed. His two breaking balls have been untouchable. His curveball and sweeper have allowed batting averages of just .133 and .138, respectively. He’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past year and one of the few highlights for St. Louis this season.
Friday, May 10 @ 7:10 pm: TBD vs. TBD
Neither team has announced a starter for Friday, but this could very well be Robert Gasser’s MLB debut for the Brewers. Gasser, still 24 until the end of this month, has made three starts at Triple-A Nashville after opening the season on the IL with bone spurs in his elbow. While he has a 5.25 ERA, he’s struck out 17 batters in 12 innings, and he had a solid start Sunday, allowing two runs on three hits and three walks with seven strikeouts.
Milwaukee’s No. 5 prospect and the No. 8 left-handed pitching prospect in baseball, Gasser excelled with Nashville last season, with a 3.79 ERA and 166 strikeouts across 26 appearances (25 starts) and 135 1⁄3 innings.
Saturday, May 11 @ 7:10 pm: Freddy Peralta (3.49 ERA) vs. Kyle Gibson (3.68 ERA)
Freddy Peralta has been ace-adjacent this year, but he hasn’t lived up to the standards he would set for himself. His first four starts were excellent, but his three most recent outings have left something to be desired. He didn’t make it through six innings in any of those games while allowing a 6.00 ERA.
Peralta is still one of the most dominant strikeout pitchers in baseball, so his dip in production is likely to be a short-term issue. He is in the 91st percentile in strikeout rate and his slider has allowed a .050 batting average – which seems like it’s hardly a real number. He has allowed more damage on his fastball, but Peralta is more than capable of making the necessary adjustments.
Kyle Gibson has some terrible expected stats (5.44 xERA) but has continued to find success with a high groundball rate. He has stranded runners at a high clip this year even as his strikeout rate has dipped to its worst since 2016. Another pitcher for the Cardinals without elite velocity, Gibson has found success with a variety of breaking balls and offspeed pitches. His sweeper has allowed more hits this year, but he has forced a 41.2% whiff rate on the pitch.
His ability to mix-and-match with a variety of pitches has helped his sinker play up without needing to blaze past hitters. Lefties have had a particularly difficult time against Gibson this season with a .212 batting average. Just like Lynn, though, Gibson has been prone to hard contact.
Sunday, May 12 @ 1:10 pm: Bryse Wilson (2.40 ERA) vs. TBD
Bryse Wilson has been one of the most unexpected breakouts of the season for Milwaukee. His 2.40 ERA has been a boon to the pitching staff, but his path to get to this point has been funky. In 2022, he pitched a career-high 115 2⁄3 innings with the Pirates with a 5.52 ERA. He moved to the bullpen when he came to Milwaukee, lowering his ERA to 2.58.
As this season developed into a myriad of pitching injuries, Wilson morphed once again into a starter but he’s been excellent this time around. He’s now providing length and limiting damage. Over his last three starts, he has pitched to a 1.65 ERA while pitching six innings in his two most recent outings. He allowed just eight hits in that time but needs to reduce the walks allowed to avoid more traffic. He doesn’t have an elite wipeout pitch, but his four primary pitches all have whiff rates above 20%. His performance has been unexpected, but his continued results will be a welcome sight in Milwaukee.
Prediction
The Brewers should be able to add to the Cardinals’ misery in this four-game showdown. Pitchers like Lynn and Gibson have been able to pitch to a low ERA so far, but it seems like a potentially combustible mix for the Cardinals if the Brewers can put together competitive at-bats throughout the entirety of the lineup. Not only is it potentially a get-right series for many of the Brewers hitters, but the St. Louis offense has played poorly this season. The Brewers could see several hitters break out of a fluke, just as the Cardinals unfortunately lost their best hitter in Contreras. Although a four-game sweep isn’t out of the question, the Brewers have a chance to confidently take three out of four.
