A look at key battleground states ahead of 2024

Here’s what we know now about election polling in 2024

In the 2016 presidential election, pollsters infamously predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the White House. Here’s what we know now about election polling in 2024.

With just under six months until Election Day, President Joe Biden and his Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump, are locked in a close presidential race that may depend on how electoral votes are cast in six key battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

All of the states ultimately decided for Biden in 2020, but the number of eligible voters from various ethnic backgrounds and their ages may come into play in the next election.

According to a USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll taken in January, Biden has gained support among key voter demographics. The Democratic incumbent experienced a marginal increase of one percentage point among voters under 35, while Trump’s support diminished by over 11 percentage points. Additionally, Biden’s support among Black voters rose by seven percentage points, while Trump’s has not changed. Among Hispanic voters, Biden’s approval ratings held steady, but Trump saw a decline of 11 points.

More: It’s a tie: Biden 37%-Trump 37% as Hispanic, Black and younger voters shift – Exclusive

Polling data is based on a sample of a population, whereas census data collects information on each member of that population.

2020 US Census data has accounted for age ranges and ethnicity in the six states, and a new type of report has analyzed the chance that two randomly chosen people were from different racial or ethnic groups; the National rating is 61.1%.

Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona’s diversity ratings from the Bureau are the highest on the list, and they were close and contested races in 2020. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin all fell within a few percentage points for Biden, but the races were not as close.

Here is a breakdown of the 2020 Census Bureau data:

• Nevada’s Census Bureau diversity rating is 68.8% and ranks third in the nation. Between 2010 and 2020, the percentage change of residents over 18 increased by 18.6%, the fifth highest increase in the nation. People 65 years of age and over make up 16.9% of the population. African Americans make up 12.4% of the population while Hispanics or Latinos make up 18.7%
• Georgia’s Census Bureau diversity rating is 64.1%, ranking ninth in the nation. There has been a 14.2% increase in the percentage change of residents over the age of 18 between 2010 and 2020, the 10th-highest increase in the nation. People 65 years of age and over make up 15.1% of the population. Hispanics or Latinos make up 10.5% of the population while African Americans make up 33.1%.
• Arizona’s Census Bureau diversity rating is 61.5% and ranks 13th in the nation. The state has had a 16.4% increase in percent change of residents over the age of 18 from 2010 to 2020, it is the eighth-highest increase in the nation. Persons aged 65 years and over make up 18.8% of the population. Hispanics or Latinos make up 32.5% of its population while African Americans make up 5.5%.
• Michigan’s Census Bureau diversity rating is 35.2%, ranking 32nd in the nation. Between 2010 and 2020, the percentage change of residents over the age of 18 increased by 5%, ranking it 40th in the nation. People 65 years of age and over make up 18.7% of the population. African Americans make up 12.4% of the population, while Hispanics or Latinos make up 18.7%.

• Pennsylvania’s diversity rating is 44%, and it ranks 33rd in the nation. Between 2010 and 2020, the percent change of residents over the age of 18 increased by 4.5%, ranking it 46^th in the nation. People 65 years of age and over make up 19.6% of the population. African Americans make up 12.2%, while Hispanics or Latinos make up 8.6%.
• Wisconsin’s Census Bureau diversity index is 37% while ranking 40th in the states. Between 2010 and 2020, the percent change of residents over the age of 18 increased by 6.1%, ranking it 34^th in the nation. People 65 years of age and over make up 18.7% of the population. African Americans make up 6.6% of the population while Hispanics or Latinos make up 7.6%.