Heat vs Celtics odds, picks, predictions: Back high-scoring Game 2

The Celtics looked dominant in their 114-94 win over Miami in the first game of the best-of-seven series.

Boston led wire-to-wire and even took a 91-59 lead into the fourth quarter. At that point, the game was practically over despite the Heat outscoring the Celtics 35-23 in the final 12 minutes.

While Miami will likely look to their fourth quarter as a sign of optimism moving forward, the reality is that the Celtics have already turned the game over to their bench, with Al Horford and Payton Pritchard getting increased minutes.

But perhaps what’s most surprising about the game is that the Celtics only used eight players.

Boston has been so dominant this season that we’ve almost forgotten there’s a massive revenge angle after its conference final loss to Miami last year.

Thus, it might not make much sense to expect a low-scoring game, given the current total of 203.5.

Heat vs. Celtics odds

Heat analysis

Miami generally has success dictating the tempo in games. Per NBA’s Advanced Stats, the Heat rank 29th in pace, averaging 96.88 possessions per 48 minutes during the regular season.

However, the true test of a team’s ability to control pace is assessing how it performs on the road. In this instance, Miami slowed the pace even more, averaging 96.73 possessions.

According to our Action Labs database, Miami was the second-most profitable team for under-bettors during the regular season with a 47-35 (57.3%) mark.

However, two of the three meetings against the Celtics finished over the total. And if we include the result in the series opener, Miami has allowed 110 or more points in all four games against the Celtics this season.

Thus, Miami’s points allowed jumps from 108.2 to 121.5 when it faces the Celtics.

Despite being a top-five team in defensive efficiency (111.5 rating), Miami doesn’t have a strong perimeter defense, ranking 19th with 13.3 3-pointers allowed per game.

Considering that the Celtics (ranked first in 3-point field goals) rarely come across a 3-point shot they don’t like, they have the personnel to take advantage of Miami’s weakness on the perimeter.

» READ MORE: The Celtics are worth the bet as the chalk to win the Eastern Conference in the 2024 NBA playoffs

Celtic’s analysis

It’s been 15 years since the Celtics last won an NBA title, and they’ve gotten close in each of the last two seasons.

After losing to the Warriors in the finals of 2022, many expected Boston to get over the hump the following year.

Unfortunately, the Heat had other plans and knocked off the Celtics in the conference finals round.

Boston made two significant upgrades by landing point guard Jrue Holiday and center Kristaps Porzingis. Both players have been vital to this Celtics team, which, according to StatMuse, has the fifth-highest point differential (11.34) in the NBA’s history.

Porzingis helps improve the Celtics’ floor spacing while also offering a threat beyond the arc. He averages 5.1 3-pointers per game, while Boston’s previous center, Robert Williams III, has yet to attempt a 3-pointer in six NBA seasons.

Given Boston’s ability to spread out five players on the court who can score from the perimeter, opposing teams face a massive hurdle in trying to slow them down.

In Game 1, Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra deployed a zone defense, and Boston shot over it, making 22-of-49 (44.9%) 3-pointers.

It was the second time this year that the Celtics made 22 3-pointers against Miami, and they sank 16 apiece in the two other games.

It’s almost a case of picking your poison when you face this juggernaut Celtics team, and one has to wonder if Spoelstra has anything else up his sleeve after Boston foiled his attempt at playing zone defense.

Heat vs. Celtic’s pick

Under-bettors are on a 15-5 run this postseason, as sportsbooks haven’t been able to make these totals low enough.

However, this adjustment of 6.5 points from the Game 1 closing total of 210 is too severe.

Boston has almost been able to name their score this season against the Heat, and the more desperate Miami gets, the more likely it is to chase the game.

The Celtics won’t change their style of play, so it’s up to the Heat to figure out how to stop them.

And given what we’ve seen thus far, there’s enough reason to doubt their chances.

Last year, the average total between the regular season and playoffs dropped by 4.5 points. This season, that number is down by 12.5 points.

While the NBA commissioner revealed that referees are officiating the game differently, fewer trips to the free-throw line won’t affect the Celtics as much because they’re so heavily reliant on their perimeter shooting.

As a result, this total is too low at 203.5, and the over is worthy of serious consideration.

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