US Dollar Credit Supply: Notable supply in 1Q24

US Dollar Credit Supply: Notable supply in 1Q24 | reports

Slight slowdown in March, but supply still ahead of previous years

Corporate supply came to US$80bn in March, lower than the significant €139bn of the previous month. It is also lower than the amounts seen in previous years (US$125-190bn), except for last year (US$68bn). Redemptions were relatively high in March at US$63bn, resulting in US$17bn net supply.
YTD, supply sits at US$292bn, still ahead of previous years due to the heavy start to the year. Despite this heavy supply, we keep to our forecast for the year as much of this is front loading and we expect a slower second half of the year.
We expect USD corporate supply will be more or less in line with this year’s supply, which we expect to approach US$650bn – despite seeing redemptions falling next year, from US$526bn to US$469bn. This is set to result in an increase in net supply to US$181bn, still lower than in some previous years (2016-21).
Industrials led the charge in supply, with US$19bn of supply in March. On a YTD basis, Healthcare and Utilities have seen the most supply, after another heavy month in March, and are now at US$64bn and US$51bn respectively.

Still record-breaking supply, at US$206bn YTD

Financial supply slightly increased to US$55bn, up from February, but still below the substantial supply seen in January. Redemptions are also relatively high at US$33bn, resulting in net supply of US$22bn for the month.
On a YTD basis, supply is still running ahead of previous years at US$206bn and higher than the previous record US$187bn in 2022.
Bank supply amounted to US$29bn, of which US$21bn was Preferred senior supply and US$8bn were Bail-In instruments. Issuance was highest for (0-3yr) and (9-12yr) and insignificant for (12-17yr), correlating with February 2024.