the war: – Here the next battle can take place

While the Ukrainians have been waiting for reinforcements, Russian forces have kept up the pressure on the battlefield.

In March, Ukrainian military leaders announced a “frightening change of pace” in the Russian warfare near the town of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk, which is referred to as a “cornerstone” in the Ukrainian defense of the region.

On Monday, the spokesman for Ukraine’s Eastern Military Command reported that Russia has now gathered somewhere between 20 and 25,000 soldiers around the city.

Now Ukraine fears that Russia aims to take Chasiv Yar within 14 days: before the Soviet “Victory Day” on May 9.

“Ukrainian cornerstone”

Chasiv Yar is located in the Donetsk region, one of four Ukrainian regions Moscow has proclaimed to have annexed. The town is about ten kilometers west of Bakhmut, which was taken by Russian forces last May after very long and bloody battles.

Before the war, Tjasiv Jar had over 12,000 inhabitants. Since the war started, the city has been shelled a number of times and most of the inhabitants have fled or been evacuated.

Those who remain are mostly elderly, who today depend on voluntary organizations for water and food, writes NTB.

The area around Chasiv Yar has been under constant shelling for a long time and Russian paratroopers are said to have now reached the eastern outskirts of the city.

The city is considered by Ukraine’s military to be strategically important, as it has served as a regrouping point and as a forward artillery base for the Ukrainian army.

If Russian troops take Chasiv Yar, the city’s high location also means that Russian forces can fire down on the areas around Kramatorsk, says Ukrainian military analyst Roman Svitan to the independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta Europe.

If this city is taken, he believes that Ukraine’s front line will be able to be moved back significantly.

The analyst lists the cities of Slovjansk, Kramatorsk, Druzjkivka and Kostjantynivka as important fortress cities in eastern Ukraine. All of these can be reached from Tjasiv Jar. If these cities are taken, it will in reality mean that Russian forces have taken the entire Donetsk region, Svitan explains to the newspaper.

Doubts about Putin

However, not everyone is equally pessimistic.

The fact that Tsjasiv Jar is up on a hill makes it more difficult to take over control, says chief researcher Tor Bukkvoll at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI).

– You shouldn’t rule anything out, but it doesn’t go particularly quickly. I don’t think Vladimir Putin will get what he wants on 9 May, says Bukkvoll to Dagbladet.

Nor does Palle Ydstebø, head teacher at the section for land power at the War College, think so. But he also believes there could be a major attack.

– Putin will be installed as president on May 7 and the “victory day” is May 9, so it may well be that they try a big attack in advance. If the Russians are massing around Chasiv Yar, and the Ukrainians are aware of this, they can gather their forces and defend the city. But here there are probably a number of calculations of how much fighting power they have, and how much they are interested in sacrificing, says Palle Ydstebø to Dagbladet.

Tormod Heier, professor of military strategy and operations at the Norwegian Armed Forces College (FHS), points out that it is difficult to take cities.

– Cities are the most difficult terrain for soldiers to fight in. In addition to being on a hill, there are both canals with a lot of water and open terrain in front of the city. Thus, it is relatively manageable to defend the city, but over time the wear and tear will also occur on the Ukrainian side, he tells Dagbladet.

Under pressure

The professor believes the question is how much the Kremlin is interested in sacrificing, in order to gain control over Chasiv Yar.

– They have shown that they are willing to make a lot of sacrifices, so it may well be that 20,000 soldiers are enough, over time, to take the city, says Heier.

If that should happen, the Russian forces have a gate for further advance, but he disagrees that the city has great strategic importance for the war.

– It would primarily mean a feather in the cap for the Russian forces, who have not had any major victories since February, when they won control of Avdijivka, says Heier.

Areas around Avdijivka and Marinka – both towns in Donetsk – are also highlighted as places where Russian forces now seem to want to launch a push. At the same time, Ukraine’s second largest city, Kharkiv, is experiencing considerable pressure.

– It is also a difficult city to take, says Heier about the latter.

He believes that the Russian forces will push in several areas in the future, to stretch out the Ukrainian forces and wear them down, thus maintaining their own advantage with more equipment and more soldiers – until the American arms support arrives in Ukraine.

At the same time, he believes that we have not yet seen a clear change of pace in Russian warfare, but is convinced that it will come, in the form of a spring offensive.

– You have to be able to expect that. It is a classic strategy for the strong party to keep up the pressure in as many places as possible, in order to bind the opposing party’s forces along the front. That makes it more difficult to release resources and build up a robust fighting force to carry out counterattacks, says Heier.