– Russia has taken one blood alcohol level in six months

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The short version

  • Ukrainian forces are withdrawing without panic, according to military experts.
  • Russian forces are advancing somewhat in the Donetsk region.
  • President Zelenskyy asks for faster arms deliveries from the West.
  • Russia has conquered 600 km² in six months, equivalent to one per thousand of Ukraine’s territory.
  • Experts believe that the composition of Ukrainian forces may have to change in the future to regain occupied land.

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At the same time, military experts state that Ukrainian forces have so far withdrawn without any form of panic.

It is during a visit to the border forces that Zelensky warns that “the occupiers are preparing to expand their offensive operations”, reports Ukrainskaja Pravda.

Although Russian forces are advancing in the Donetsk region and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is asking for speeding up the supply of weapons from the West, the experts see no crisis for the Ukrainians:

– The Ukrainian forces have had an organized withdrawal. There has been no headlong flight. They have quietly retreated to a new line of defence, says Peter Viggo Jakobsen at the Danish Defense Academy to VG.

– We see no indications that the Russians will take large areas of land.

– They still have to withdraw?

– Yes, it is not fortunate that they have to retreat a few kilometres, but the battle picture looks more or less as it has since November 2022, states the expert.

Researcher in Russian military relations at the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS), Flemming Splidsboel Hansen, puts it all into context in this way:

– We are seeing a Russian offensive, and it will probably become more intensive in the coming days and weeks. The important thing is that the American weapons arrive as quickly as possible, says the researcher to VG.

– But Russia has conquered 600 square kilometers of land in six months. It corresponds to one per thousand of the territory of Ukraine. So if they continue at the same pace, it will take 500 years before they have taken the whole country.

This photo is from the Russian Ministry of Defense and is supposed to show Russian soldiers in the occupied Donetsk region. Photo: AP / NTB

– Yes, it is an offensive, and Russia has had some success, but in the big picture it means little, he believes.

These figures agree well with what Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said at the beginning of April. He then stated that the Russians had conquered 400 square kilometers of land by 2024.

The think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has estimated that Russia controls a total of approximately 100,000 square kilometers of Ukraine. It corresponds to about a fifth of total Ukrainian territory.

– When the American supplies arrive, there will hopefully be less problems for the Ukrainians, says Peter Viggo Jakobsen.

<-– There has been no headlong flight.

Peter Viggo Jakobsen at the Danish Defense Academy on Ukraine’s withdrawal

– What about soldiers?

– Of course, Ukraine is pressed for personnel, but they do not need as many to defend themselves as the Russians need to attack. But in the future, perhaps in a year’s time, Kyiv will have to review its policy that men under the age of 25 should not do military service. That is very special. During World War II, the average age of American soldiers was 21.

According to Time Magazine, the average age of the Ukrainian soldier is 43 years.

– Kyiv may eventually have to look at the composition of its forces – if the ambition is still to take back occupied land. Then they must have several hundred thousand more soldiers, says Peter Viggo Jakobsen.

Flemming Splidsboel Hansen points to the same thing, but also adds:

– When the war started, Ukraine banned men of a certain age from leaving the country. Another move could therefore be to force home men who stay in, for example, Norway and Denmark.

A Ukrainian soldier from the “Achilles” battalion tests a Vampire drone. Photo: GENYA SAVILOV / AFP / NTB

– How will this happen?

– We don’t know much about it at the moment, but it could be, for example, that the embassies stop giving them passports and the like. We will see how far the embassies are willing to go. It can also be as simple as expressing to these men that they are not patriotic, says the Danish researcher.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Ukraine needs “a significant acceleration” in arms deliveries from the West to enable troops to face advancing Russian forces on multiple fronts. There is a front line of 1,000 kilometers in total.

– We strongly count on fast deliveries from the USA, says Zelenskyj.

– The occupier must know these deliveries, regardless of where they are located. Everywhere where Russia pushes and where we have to push them out, says the Ukrainian president.

The article is in Norwegian

Tags: Russia #blood alcohol level months

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