Ap behind Frp on new poll: – Symbolically very unfortunate

The Labor Party receives a support of 17.3 per cent against the Progressive Party’s 17.8 per cent in the survey Opinion carried out for Dagsavisen and FriFagbevegelse.

– It is symbolically very unfortunate for Ap to be below Frp, but the result is well within the margin of error, says election researcher Johannes Bergh at the Institute for Social Research.

The margin of error in the survey varies between 1.2 and 3.4 percentage points.

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– A bit too good a measurement

The Labor Party has declined from a support of 19.4 per cent in April. However, the Progress Party has risen by a full 5 percentage points from the start of the year to May, according to adviser Maria Rosness in Opinion.

From April to May, the increase is 1 percent. The FRP has not had a larger share of voters in the surveys from Opinion since December 2015.

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The right has made a drop of 5.8 percentage points since April and now has a support of 28 per cent.

– This is an incredibly good measurement. Maybe even a little too good to be true, but it is clear that there is a majority for a new government in Norway, and that is what matters, says party leader Erna Solberg.

Must be taken with a pinch of salt

The swings are violent for the Right. Support in April was the party’s lowest since November 2021 and much lower than the average of other nationwide measurements in the same month.

– There are always some gaps in the measurements, and the progress of the Conservative Party in particular must be taken with a grain of salt, but the results for Ap and Frp are in line with the trend, Bergh points out.

Support in percentage (change from last month in brackets): Red 4.6 (-1.2), SV 9.7 (-1.2), Ap 17.3 (-2.1), Sp 5.9 ( -0.1), MDG 3.5 (+0.7), KrF 4.4 (+1.4), Left 5.8 (-1.5), Right 28 (+5.8), Frp 17 .8 (+1), second 3 (-2.8).

The survey is based on 1,000 telephone interviews in the period 30 April to 6 May 2024. 699 respondents have answered questions about party preference.