– Seven days is enough – Dagsavisen

In an interview with The Economist, the deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, Vadim Skibitskij, says that Russia and President Vladimir Putin could potentially exploit a “NATO loophole” in the event of an attack on the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

– Russia can take the Baltics in seven days, while NATO’s reaction time is ten days, claims Skibitskij, and adds that NATO’s Article 5 will then mean little.

Article five of the alliance states that an armed attack against one or more NATO countries in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against all of them.

NATO’s responsiveness to Russia

Tony Ingesson, senior lecturer in political science at Lund University in Sweden, has commented on the move. He believes that NATO can act quickly on Russian aggression, but points out that the Baltic countries do not have great military power.

– And that limits how long they can endure. So Nato will never have time on its side in the event of a Russian attack (on the Baltic countries). Russia, on the other hand, can “gather power” ahead, with its geographical advantage, Ingesson tells Swedish TV 4.

He adds, however, that what Skibitskij describes is a worst-case scenario.

– And he has his reasons for airing such a scenario. I fully understand that, says Ingesson to the channel.

Also read: General: – Now we have three choices. Only one of them can stop Putin

– If Putin attacks, we will know about it

Karsten Friis, NATO expert and researcher at the Norwegian Foreign Policy Institute (Nupi), has seen the plans of Skibitskij and Ingesson. He points out that Skibitskij does not follow up the Baltic claim with any justification or further analysis.

But Russia and Putin do not have the forces for a ground attack on a NATO country anyway, says Friis to Dagsavisen.

– If Russia should ever plan something like this, we will be notified in good time, as we were before the attack on Ukraine. It takes time to march up an attack force. This also gives NATO time to respond, says the Nupi researcher.

Skibitskij’s reference to a reaction time of ten days, Friis believes, is about NATO’s new force model where the alliance plans to be able to have 100,000 soldiers ready in ten days.

– But that does not mean that there are zero soldiers in place after nine days, and then suddenly 100,000 the day after. There will be a gradual but rapid build-up in accordance with NATO’s new planning framework, Friis points out.

Vladimir Putin also knows that an attack on NATO is something completely different from Ukraine, he continues.

– Both because of Article 5, but also because NATO is far stronger militarily and economically. I therefore do not see this as an immediate scenario, but something that could come in a few years if the Putin regime continues to develop in a negative direction – and if they win in Ukraine, says Friis.

Also read: Ukrainian men die fleeing Putin’s war: – Sad and tragic

Defense of Europe and Ukraine

However, he and several other experts have pointed to the importance of Europe thinking more about its own security.

– Because it takes a long time to build a defence, we must therefore start now – at the same time as we increase support for Ukraine’s self-defence, says the Nupi researcher.

A number of experts, politicians and generals have warned that Russia and President Vladimir Putin will not give up on Ukraine. EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell and Latvia’s foreign minister Krišjānis Kariņš are among them.

– A high-intensity war in Europe, a conventional war, is no longer a fantasy, Borrell said recently. Others, such as the Norwegian professor Øyvind Østerud, have downplayed the chance of further Russian attacks in Europe.

The Russian president has himself rejected the possibility of Russian attacks against NATO countries.

– Why would we do that? We have no interest in either Poland, Latvia or anywhere else. It’s just spreading threats, Vladimir Putin said in February, adding, according to NTB, that it will only be relevant if one of the countries attacks Russia first.

Also read: Expert on Putin’s “jewel”: – It could become worthless

Also read: Ukraine expert on Putin’s war: – It is absolutely necessary to rethink

Also read: She gives Russia a clear message: – We do not accept it

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Facts about Vladimir Putin

• Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin was born in Leningrad, now St. Petersburg, on October 7, 1952.
• Former KGB agent. In 1998, he became head of the Russian security service FSB.
• In 1999, was appointed prime minister by President Boris Yeltsin. When Yeltsin stepped down on 31 December 1999, Putin became acting president.
• Was formally elected president in 2000 and re-elected for another four-year term in 2004.
• In 2008 he became Prime Minister under President Dmitry Medvedev. According to the constitution, Russian presidents could not serve for more than two consecutive terms.
• In March 2012, he was again elected president for six new years.
• In 2018, Putin was re-elected for a new six-year term with almost 77 percent of the vote, according to the official results.
• A constitutional amendment in 2020 enabled Putin to remain in power until 2036.
• In February 2022, Putin invaded Ukraine with large military forces.
• In March 2024, Putin was re-elected as president with at least 87 percent of the vote after all real opposition candidates were barred from the election.

(Sources: NTB, AFP, The New York Times)

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