– Ukraine can surpass Russia in combat power and go on the offensive

In the long wait while far-right Republicans pressured Speaker Mike Johnson not to bring the weapons package up for a vote in the House of Representatives, Ukraine has lost the initiative on the battlefield.

The White House has acknowledged that the unnecessary delay has cost Ukraine many casualties and loss of territory. Now everyone’s eyes are turned to how Ukraine can benefit from the gigantic arms package worth over NOK 600 billion.

– Then more, much more, of the same is required

Head teacher at the Norwegian Defense Academy, department of land power, Palle ydstebø, does not think the weapons package in itself is enough to put the Russians on the defensive.

– Probably not. Then more, much more, of the same is required. Ukraine cannot match Russia in the number of soldiers and ability to absorb losses, but with large amounts of Western materiel they can still surpass Russia in fighting power and go on the offensive, Ydstebø believes.

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He still believes that the arms supplies from the USA will give the Ukrainians a boost along the front line, both morally and practically.

– It will make it possible to stabilize the front and to some extent offset Russian artillery superiority. In addition, deliveries of air defense systems and anti-aircraft missiles will strengthen the defense of critical infrastructure and population centers.

– The Crimean bridge is closest and begs to be destroyed

– How will Ukraine use the new long-range weapons, is it likely that Crimea, including the Kertch bridge, will be attacked?

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– They will most likely continue to weaken Russia’s ability to support operations along the front, by attacking critical supplies, railways and other important lines of communication, command posts and airports. The Kertch bridge is important because most of the supplies to the forces in the south and in Krym pass over it, at least until the railway the Russians are building from Donetsk to Kherson county is finished. Therefore, the bridge is almost begging to be destroyed, explains Palle Ydstebø.

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Video: Stoltenberg on fighters: – Very impressive

– The Russians will probably raze the whole city

– It is said that the big city of Kharkiv could be next, how would an attack turn out?

– It depends on what the Russians have to attack with. So far we have not seen that they have used new soldiers and material to build up large divisions that they need if such a large city as Kharkiv is to be taken. The Russians are using both new soldiers and materiel to replenish the losses along the front, says Ydstebø, and continues:

– If a large city like Kharkiv is to be taken with land forces, it must first be surrounded and isolated, before possibly entering the city to fight the defenders. As Russia has attacked cities so far in the war, they will probably raze the entire city, as we have seen from Russia’s other wars, from Grozny, via Aleppo to Bakhmut, answers Ydstebø.

– Uncertain whether the Russians have the capacity

Institute for the study of war (ISW)

– When do you think the Russians will launch their spring or summer offensive, and do they actually have the capacity for this after heavy losses?

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– I am unsure whether the Russians have the capacity for anything other than local offensives like we saw at Avdiivka last winter. Even it took heavy Russian losses, even against Ukrainian defenders who lacked artillery and other heavy weapons. It may be that the Russians will continue with offensives such as we are seeing against Chasiv Yar, at least as long as the Ukrainian forces do not have enough combat power to deploy. But that could change with the aid packages that are now on their way.

– Putin has found that it can be a victory to take with him

– Why is the battle for Tjasiv Jar in Donbas so important?

– Chasiv Yar is an important area for the Russians to advance to the main Ukrainian defense positions at Kramatorsk. But it is a strong defensive terrain, which is demanding to attack. It may also be that Putin has found that there may be a victory to take with him to the presidential inauguration on May 7 and a possible celebration of “Victory Day” on May 9.

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The lieutenant colonel believes that Russian air forces will become less daring with more Ukrainian air defense along the front.

– Most likely. When they have previously been attacked either in the air or at airports, as last autumn, they withdraw. At least for a while.

– Putin miscalculated

Lieutenant Colonel Palle Ydstebø. Photo: Terje Pedersen / NTB

According to the White House, Putin crossed one of the US’s red lines by using North Korean missiles and massively attacking civilian infrastructure. Ydstebø believes Putin took the chance in the hope that the threats against the West will work.

– Presumably he did it because he thought he had once again managed to threaten that this was a red line the Americans did not dare to cross. But there it seems that he miscalculated. It seems that the US has seen through the Russians’ systematic nuclear threats, they have already threatened or hinted at the use of nuclear weapons over 40 times in the last two years, Palle Ydstebø reminds.