The president of Belarus is causing trouble for Putin

The short version

• Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko claims that the terrorists behind the attack in Moscow tried to flee to Belarus, which contradicts the Russian version.
• Experts believe that Belarus would be a more logical escape route than Ukraine, given that the border is less guarded.
• Lukashenko may deviate from the Kremlin’s line to strengthen his own position domestically and show independence from Putin.

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President Aleksandr Lukashenko claimed on Tuesday that the terrorists behind the deadly terrorist attack in a concert hall in Moscow fled in the direction of Belarus.

The think tankAn organization that conducts research and advises on specific topics such as politics, economics, or military strategies. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) points out that it directly undermines Kremlin’s The central complex of the Russian government in Moscow, also used as a term for the Russian government or apparatus of power.version of the escape route of the terrorists. Because the story from the Russian authorities has been that the four men who were imprisoned for the terror on Sunday were going to Ukraine. Putin Russian President Vladimir Putinhas gone so far as to say that the terrorist attack is part of Ukraine’s attack on Russia.

ISKPAn abbreviation for “Islamic State Khorasan Province”, a branch of IS (The Islamic State). have claimed responsibility for the attack, and experts believe everything points to them.

According to Lukashenko, however, the terrorists were going to Belarus. But thanks to a quick and effective mobilization, they had to turn around.

– It is exciting that he does not follow Moscow’s line, says head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense Academy, Tom Røseth.

The concert hall attack in Moscow

What happened?

At least 140 people are said to have been killed in the attack on the Crocus City Hall concert hall in Moscow on Friday evening. Russian authorities say they have arrested eleven people after the terrorist attack, of which four people are said to have been directly involved. On Sunday evening, they were produced for remand.

Where did it happen?

Crocus City Hall consists of a shopping mall, a concert hall and a theatre. This is a venue that has room for around 6,000 spectators – and according to Russian media, Friday’s concert was sold out.

Why would IS attack Russia?

IS views Russia as a key enemy, in part because of Russia’s roles in conflicts in Chechnya and Syria, and its alliances with Iran and the Taliban. The attack comes after a warning from the US about a possible “extremist attack”. The Norwegian Foreign Ministry has also warned Norwegians about this.

Has something similar happened before?

Yes, Russia has experienced several terrorist attacks in recent decades, also from IS. This has led to stricter control from the authorities.

Lukashenko has appeared as Putin’s most faithful friend, and has, among other things, allowed Russia and Russian forces to use his country as a starting point for attacks on Ukraine on the other side of the border.

Røseth points to two possible reasons why Lukashenko is now choosing to deviate from the official line from the Kremlin:

– One is that Ukraine has opinion support in Belarus. The population is not a supporter of the war, they are against Belarusian support for the war, and in that sense there may be domestic reasons why he does not stand Moscow’s line all the time in this war.

The second is that Lukashenko sees that Putin is struggling at home.

– It could be that Lukashenko wants to be a little independent. He has previously made harsh statements where he has been tough on Moscow in order to appear as a strong leader in Belarus. At the same time, he is dependent on Putin to retain power, Røseth points out.

Also read: The Moscow terror: – Catastrophic incompetence

Lukashenko is often called “Europe’s last dictator” because he cracks down on opposition politicians, does not hold free democratic elections and uses the country’s security forces to crack down on protesters.

After the 2020 election, it was introduced sanctions Punitive measures or restrictions imposed by one country against another, often to press for political change.against Belarus, and the country became dependent on its partner Russia, says Røseth.

– Lukashenko does not oppose Putin unless he strengthens himself. He does it for his own safety.

Røseth’s “optimistic analysis” of why Lukashenko chooses not to follow the Kremlin’s version is that Putin’s iron grip has begun to crack.

– Prigozhin showed the weaknesses of the Putin regime, and this terror shows that the regime has more challenges with security than they admit, says Røseth, and continues:

– Mistakes have probably been made and they have downplayed the threat of terrorism, and Lukashenko making such a statement is also a challenge for Putin. So there is progress in the war for Moscow, but they are struggling more at home, is my interpretation.

May have consequences

According to ISW, Lukashenko has few obvious reasons to lie about the terrorists’ escape route in this way.

– The idea that the attackers traveled to Belarus, presumably to seek refuge there, will have harmful political consequences for Lukashenko and his regime, the think tank points out.

The reason, according to ISW, is that it will raise questions about why the terrorists thought they would be safer in Belarus, and who, if so, they would have been welcomed by.

Little guarded border – or war zone?

As the intelligence expert sees it, Belarus is a much more logical escape route for the four men accused of terrorism from the former Soviet republic TajikistanTajikistan is among the poorest of the former Soviet republics. The country is today a republic in Central Asia bordering Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, China and Afghanistan. .

– Belarus is the least guarded border outside of Russia. Where they intended to end up is unanswered. That it is natural to escape towards Belarus is completely obvious, so what he comes up with seems credible, and that deprives Putin of Ukraine-the narrative A narrative or a way of explaining and understanding events that conveys a particular point of view or message.around the terrorist operation, Røseth points out.

What opportunities would those accused of terrorism have had to escape via Ukraine, asks Røseth.

– No matter where, it is a front line to a greater or lesser extent. That one should flee to Ukraine is very special, then they would have to have bribed the Russian military first and had arrangements on both sides, he says.

The four are said to have been arrested at a motorway near the Russian city of Bryansk.