Young men choose blue. Now the women are following suit

Aslak Bodahl

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The local elections last year were a big victory for the blue parties. The youngest men under the age of 29 triggered an electoral landslide on the right and flocked around the Conservative Party and FRP.

This trend would continue if there had been a general election tomorrow. The new thing now is that the young women are following suit.

This is shown by the figures from the measurements in the period after last year’s local elections – from October to April this year – which Opinion has carried out on behalf of FriFagbevegelse. This corresponds to a total of 7,000 respondents.

– There has been speculation over the past six months that I only appeal to young men. That is why it is extra nice and good news for us that there is such a broad and large survey that confirms what is the truth, says Simen Velle, leader of Fremskrittspartiets Ungdom, to FriFagbevegelse.

Larger than Ap and SV

The right has obviously cracked a code. Not only are the FRP and the Conservative Party the largest among young voters under the age of 29. The two parties have also managed to attract even more women of the same age.

If it had been up to the young people, the Conservative Party and FRP alone would have gained a majority in the Storting. The two parties get a total of 85 mandates – just enough to lead a majority government.

Ap and Sp are 47 mandates away from a majority if it is the voters aged 18 to 29 who get to decide.

– We raise the perspectives and address the problems that young men struggle with, says Velle.

Among the youngest men between the ages of 18 and 24, the FRP has 28 per cent of voters behind it and is thus larger than both Ap and SV combined. Simen Welle also makes a big point of it when we meet him.

– You should like to have that as a headline, he says of Frp’s victory over Ap and SV.

Comment: A blue youth wave over Norway and the western countries

The women fail the left side

The left side didn’t just lose the guys at the last local election. Now they also have to let go of the young women. That is the conclusion just over six months after the blue general election if we take all the Opinion polls into account.

This is what the figures from October to April say:

· 47 per cent aged 18–24 would have voted Høyre or Frp

· 38 per cent aged 25–29 would have voted Høyre or Frp

Among young men, support is even higher on the bourgeois side:

· 55 per cent aged 18–24 would have voted Høyre or Frp

· 45 percent aged 25–29 would have voted Høyre or Frp

Labor gets only 11 and 13 percent of the votes of the young women aged 18–24 and 25–29. Among the youngest men, support is 15 per cent compared to a poor 7 per cent at the last election.

For Astrid Hoem (29), leader of AUF, the survey is discouraging. Especially because Ap has had a tradition of being the largest party among the young. Now they have a large canvas to paint.

– We have to win back the young people. Every party that wants to be big and rise higher must also be the biggest party among the young, she states to FriFagbevegelse.

Responds with radical measures

Astrid Hoem wants to develop a policy that hits the voter groups from 18 to 24 years and 25 to 29 years. Then, according to the AUF leader, Labor must dare to take radical measures so that the next generation will be able to own their own home.

She believes the following steps can make it easier for Ap to get the young people on the team:

· Build drastically more in the big cities to meet demand

· Look at the way in which owning homes is taxed

· Ensure that entry into the rental market becomes easier

· Double or triple the allocations to Husbanken

Housing policy has first priority in the quest to regain the trust of young voters.

– For young people, it is impossible to get into today’s housing market in Oslo. The generation gap in the housing market is just as much a sibling gap, she claims.

– While the older brother as a single first-time buyer could afford almost 40 per cent of the homes in Oslo in 2010, the sister can today afford 3.3 per cent of the homes with the same conditions, says Hoem.

Current affairs: Ap is almost eradicated among young men. It scares the AUF leader deep into his soul

Well’s recipe

FpU leader Simen Velle claims that it has long been almost taboo to talk about the challenges that young men have.

He himself is young and a diligent user of social media. He notices that there are many young men in his comments who are skeptical, conspiratorial and doubtful.

– I try to include them in the debate. Often I don’t agree with what they write, but I meet, see and talk to them and not just to them. It turns out to work quite well, states the 23-year-old.

Velle believes that most people experience a greater distance from politicians than before. For the FpU leader, it is important not only to talk about the things he thinks are important and exciting.

– I think the politicians have been too engrossed in solving big and overriding problems and forgotten the wallet issues that are important to most people, he believes.

– You have to prioritize both sides at the same time, and both we and the right have balanced that well lately. It is wrong to prioritize one’s own political fads over people’s problems, states Velle.

Equality is important, especially for young men. FpU leader Simen Velle knows that.

Brian Cliff Olguin

Right-wing wave with women

According to Johannes Bergh, election researcher at the Institute for Social Research, the figures in the Opinion survey are not just bad news for Ap. They are very different from what was the outcome in the 2023 election.

– In the local elections, it was primarily young men who voted for the Conservative Party and FRP, while young women swore to Ap and SV. Now these women have left Ap and Sp and applied to Høyre and Frp, says the election researcher.

– It is very interesting that the image of a right-wing wave with women is as clear as it is now. I have not seen any similar figures before, says Johannes Bergh.

Johannes Bergh believes there are several reasons why young voters wear blue and not red-green.

– We see the same in the rest of Europe with the exception of Great Britain, he says.

– Trends are followed by a counter-reaction. We see that against what is called “woke” and the demand to always be politically correct, he points out.

– What was also a climate wave two or three years ago has now turned into irritation over measures that are too intrusive in people’s lives. This also applies to other progressive trends, says the election researcher.

Political age divide

In the surveys from October to April, there is a political divide between those over and under the age of 25, adviser Maria Rosness points out in Opinion.

– The internal divide among young people is very visible in the MDG. While 14 per cent of the youngest women say they would have voted for the party, only 6 per cent aged 25-29 would have done the same, she says.

The age groups 18-20 and 21-24 differ from those aged 25-29 for both sexes, the survey shows.

For both sexes, there is a clear preponderance that would have voted for the Conservative Party and FRP compared to parties on the left.

Which party women and men aged 25-29 vote for is more similar to the party distribution among all women and men in general.