Protesters demand a boycott of Israel in Eurovision. But that doesn’t mean the country can’t advance to the final.

MALMÖ (Aftenposten): Does Israel’s Eden Golan have any chance in this year’s Eurovision?

Suddenly the drums sound from the side street. In “Eurovision street” in Malmö, people sit in outdoor cafes under pink pennants. People in glittering clothes walk by. Soon the message of the protesters drowns out the party-goers:

– Boycott Israel. Long live Palestine.

A helicopter is soon heard above us and the police arrive. It is the night before the semi-finals of the Eurovision Song Contest. Much larger demonstrations are expected here on Thursday.

That Israel participates while bombing the Gaza Strip creates anger and division. And leads to an enormous security build-up in Malmö.

But that does not mean that Israel’s candidate has no chance in the competition.

The bookmakers believe the song by Israeli Eden Golan will advance from the semi-final on Thursday to the final on Saturday.

– Nordic phenomenon

Kato Hansen has written a book about the Melodi Grand Prix story. He believes there are several factors that enable Israel’s song to do well, despite the opposition. It is about both politics and mathematics.

– We cannot rule out that it will be sent directly. But the contribution is so good that, by virtue of its own quality, it should go easily to the final, says Hansen.

Although Israel’s warfare in Gaza is condemned in many European countries, there are differences.

– The mobilization against Israel’s participation is primarily a Nordic phenomenon. It is different further south, says Hansen.

This is Israel’s contribution:

Can’t punish

He points out that, among other things, France will vote in the second semi-final, in which Israel participates. The country has Europe’s largest Jewish population.

– There is no such mobilization against Israel. Quite the contrary, he says.

He believes that the Gaza war has changed public opinion in many countries.

– But those who want to punish Israel have no one to vote for. Palestine does not participate. In return, Israel has many supporters. I think that many people who don’t usually follow Eurovision will watch this year and vote to give their support to Israel, for example in Christian conservative circles, says Hansen.

On the pedestrian street that has been renamed Eurovision Street in Malmö, the Durand family from Paris are looking forward to the final. And not worried about safety. They believe people will be divided on the question of whether they can vote for Israel. But even they won’t have problems with it if the song is good.

British Serena and Julian are more in doubt. They will not boo when the Israeli contribution comes on stage.

– But it will also be difficult to applaud, they say.

– Never been more important

The voting system can be important. The jury accounts for half of the votes. In principle, they must vote neutrally and only assess the contribution.

– It will be exciting to see how the juries react. When it comes to the viewer votes, one cannot ignore the fact that Israel’s supporters are mobilizing, says MGP expert Kato Hansen.

He says that it has always been important for Israel to participate in Eurovision.

– But it has never been more important than now, says the Eurovision historian.

Middle Eastern expert Hilde Henriksen Waage is also following extra on Eurovision this year.

The professor also believes that the mood in Norway and to some extent Sweden stands out, even the view on the Middle East conflict has changed dramatically in many countries.

Public opinion has changed

– Over the years, Norwegian public opinion has turned from being Israel’s best friend to massive support for the Palestinians’ cause. In the countries on the continent, it is different, she says.

She points, among other things, to Germany, which is considered the most pro-Israel. There, pro-Palestinian protests have been cracked down on. But there has now also been a change of attitude among the Germans. Spain, Italy and Ireland have traditionally supported the Palestinian cause, according to Waage. In Germany, France and Great Britain, public opinion is more divided. In former Eastern European countries, it is more difficult to say what public opinion is, she believes.

– On the one hand, it is an area where there has been a lot of anti-Semitism. On the other hand, they are very conservative and go to great lengths to support their friend the US, which could mean a vote for Israel. But it is very uncertain how this will turn out, says Waage.

She has no doubt that Eurovision is also politics.

– Just the fact that Israel is involved is very controversial. They counter with an Israeli who grew up in Russia and with an original text that was political, she says.

Can’t vote against

Morten Thomassen in the Norwegian Grand Prix club believes Israel’s contribution will go on to the final.

– For those who support Israel, will vote like crazy. You can only vote up a song, and not down a song, says Thomassen.

He also says that the boycott demands are more loud in the Nordic countries.

– I think it is very Nordic. It is possible that the song will not get any points from the Nordic region, but in the south it can do very well, says Thomassen.