– Could be the most expensive summer ever

The short version

Airfare will be expensive this summer due to higher taxes, lack of aircraft and less competition.
Hotel and food prices in Europe have also risen
But: Some flight routes are actually cheaper than last year
Albania is becoming a new and more affordable destination for many

– Flight prices increased dramatically last summer compared to the year before. We will not see the same this year. As I understand the market, we see an increase of 10-12 per cent compared to last year, says flight analyst An expert in the airline industry who analyzes and interprets data about airlines and flights.Hans Jørgen Elnæs in the analysis company Winair.

– But as always, in mid-July when everyone is going to travel, we may see even more expensive prices.

<- Hans Jørgen Elnæs

Flight analyst at Winair

He explains the reason for the increase as follows:

Higher fees and taxes
Aircraft manufacturers such as Boeing cannot supply enough aircraft
Less competition in the industry

– So overall, we have less capacity than the demand. It is a known driver of prices.

As always, it is cheapest to travel outside the typical holiday weeks, i.e. before 20 June and after 10 August.

And once the plane tickets are in the box, expenses for the trip itself remain:

– Hotel prices in general have increased greatly due to increased demand. If you include the euro, this year’s summer could be the most expensive summer ever, says Elnæs.

– It’s gloomy…?

– You can say that, but Norwegians don’t stop travelling. Although there is pressure on interest rates and many private costs that have increased significantly, Norwegians also have a budget for travelling. And it is very important for Norwegians to take their holidays in the summer.

According to the German analysis agency Statista, hotel prices have increased in the EU area by 5.3 percent since last year.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages throughout Europe have increased by roughly 12 percent in a year, according to the EU site Eurostat.

The search service Finn.no sees that Norwegians still choose the classics Spain, Greece and Turkey.

But a newcomer has crept into the top ten list this summer, namely Albania – a cheaper country to travel to, also because they don’t use the euro.

ALBANIA: This country is the newcomer to Norwegians’ top ten list for the summer. Here from Ksamil in the south of the country. Photo: FLORION GOGA / Reuters / NTB

Now to the bright spot!

For VG, on 15 May last year, some random samples were taken of prices for various popular destinations in the holiday week of 11–18 July. We have checked the same routes and dates again. And on several of them it is actually cheaper than last year.

The yellow are this year’s prices.

Oslo-Alicante

Norwegian: NOK 6,239 4749
Sas: NOK 5980 5497

Oslo – Nice

Norwegian: NOK 5,857 4869
Sas: NOK 5,073 5666

Oslo- Crete (Chania)

Norwegian: NOK 7,094 7037
Sas: NOK 8104 7091 (sas go smart, incl. bag)

Oslo to Naples, 10–19 July (does not fly every day)

Norwegian: NOK 7,947 6677
SAS does not fly there directly

Last year, chief economist Jan Ludvig Andreassen in Eika Gruppen struck a blow for conference hotels in Finland as an alternative in the joint holiday.

This year, it is Japan that he would recommend, at least if the wallet decides:

– It’s just going to Japan, the only place we can afford to go to, he says, referring to the fact that the Japanese yen has weakened significantly in the past year.

But with a long flight, it’s not exactly cheap (or comfortable) to travel that far with a family of children.

<-Jan Ludvig Andreassen

Chief economist, Eika Group

We try again:

This is his tips list if the choice again falls on the classics Greece, Spain or Italy:

Rent an apartment or house and eat dinner at home rather than out. Then you can rather have an expensive drink in the piazza in the evening
If you eat out – choose the worst tourist trap in the middle of the square and instead choose a family restaurant a few blocks away
Many more rental car companies have entered the market in countries such as Italy. Drop the well-established ones and choose some of the new ones
Sweden is still as “cheap” as Norway

– And luxury hotels for cheap, that type of deal is gone because it is now fully booked along the Mediterranean. So there is probably a stronger perceived price increase than the real one.

Andreassen, who believes that Norway should have a fixed exchange rate against the euro like Denmark has, says it is not impossible that the krone will fall further and that we will end up with a krone exchange rate of 13 against the euro.

– But my forecast now is that the krone will strengthen by 10 per cent in the future, even if I don’t want to put money on it. Everyone struggles to create a good model of what the crown should be.